2008 coolest since 2000 and 10th warmest since 1850

[HURAKAN]

World heading towards cooler 2008
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website

This year appears set to be the coolest globally this century.

Data from the UK Met Office shows that temperatures in the first half of the year have been more than 0.1 Celsius cooler than any year since 2000.

The principal reason is La Nina, part of the natural cycle that also includes El Nino, which cools the globe.

Even so, 2008 is set to be about the 10th warmest year since 1850, and Met Office scientists say temperatures will rise again as La Nina conditions ease.


TEMPERATURES - KEY FACTS
Temperatures given as variations from 1961-1990 average
Warmest on record - 1998 - +0.515C
Coldest on record - 1862 - -0.616C
From 2001 to 2007, varied between +0.400 and +0.479C
2008 January to June - +0.281C
Data from Hadley Centre

"The big thing that's been happening this year is La Nina, which has lowered global temperatures somewhat," said John Kennedy, climate monitoring and research scientist at the Met Office's Hadley Centre.

"La Nina has faded in the last couple of months and now we have neutral conditions in the Pacific," he told BBC News.

Scientists at the World Meteorological Organization have also suggested that 2008 will turn out to be cooler than the last few years.

Breaking the ice

La Nina cools waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, but its effects are felt around the globe.

It is one of a number of natural climatic cycles that can re-inforce or counteract the warming trend stemming from increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

LA NINA EXPLAINED
La Nina translates from the Spanish as "The Child Girl"
Refers to the extensive cooling of the central and eastern Pacific
Increased sea temperatures in the western Pacific mean the atmosphere has more energy, and frequency of heavy rain and thunderstorms is increased
Typically lasts for up to 12 months and generally less damaging event than the stronger El Nino

Earlier this year, one group of researchers suggested that another natural cycle, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, was likely to hold temperatures steady for about the next decade, before reversing direction and allowing a renewed warming.

"The principal thing is to look at the long-term trend," said Dr Kennedy.

"2008 will still be significantly above the long-term average. There's been a strong upward trend in the last few decades, and that's the thing to focus on."

One of the starkest effects of rising temperatures has been the rapid loss of summer Arctic sea ice, which has accelerated since the year 2000.

Earlier in the year, there were indications that 2008 could see even more ice lost than in the record-breaking melt of 2007.

Currently, the ice appears to be holding together better than a year ago, although scientists are wary as much of it is relatively fragile ice that formed in a single winter.

Canadian authorities have just declared that the Northwest Passage is "navigable", though acknowledging that some parts of it still contain floating ice.

[KWT]

Not really surprising its the coolest this century given the near strong La Nina...

However note even with a pretty hefty La Nina still looks likely we are going to come into the top 10, thats not exactly impressive!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is no La nina at this moment.

I believe what is keeping us "cooler" by .1, maybe .15c is the solar min. This is the deepest solar min since the 1950s, and if it can last intil the end of this year like it currently is. I think this should become a issue, since we know that the little ice age, and many of the other cool periods of the last 10,000 years where mostly caused by these. Yes, Volcano's also had a part in many a short term cool down, but if you look at history of the large(10-200 year periods+) cool periods you see a solar min on each one.

I think co2 can cause warming of course, but the sun has more power; I'm talking about output, if you cut the out put from 100% of todays to lets say 98%, then you have not as much energy getting to earth. In earth cools.. I think 2009 will be just as cool even with out la nina because of this. Heck we could get a weak El nino and I would not expect to be much warmer if the solar min keeps up. If I'm right we should be thanking god for the warming agents we are putting into our Atmosphere. You likley think I'm nuts for saying that, but remember the 1940s and 1950s we had less then 3 billion +- people on this planet, while today we have nearly 7 billion. We need every inch of land to feed us and provide homes to live in. We can't afford even .5c cool down. If that happen war and pain would spread aorund the world.

It also took intil 1803 to make a billion people on this planet. During the little ice age from 1350-1750 +- we had between 500,000,000 to 800,000,000 people on this planet. This was a normal way of life and virus could not be stopped. So yes that is why I say I pray to god for warming.

One more thing you might not be thinking about; we by the middle of this century, are going to "grow" to 9.5 billion on earth. That means we need more growable land to feed us, so a warmer earth is needed. So another .5c would be needed, at least I believe.

[KWT]

No Matt but the strong La Nina was around the first third of the year and is enough to skew the average downwards quite a bit I'd imagine...

The true test is if we get a strong El Nino at any point in the near future.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

No Matt but the strong La Nina was around the first third of the year and is enough to skew the average downwards quite a bit I'd imagine...

The true test is if we get a strong El Nino at any point in the near future.

We are not in one now, so we need to see if it stays the coolest in the last decade without la nina. In which it appears to be doing so, that will show that the solar min is having some effect. In will show us that we maybe in deep you know what.

[KWT]

Maybe Matt...but equally may just suggest that this was the strongest la nina in early Spring in the 2000's as the only year that had a la nina close to this one was 2000, thats the only benchmark we can use this century really.

[Clipper96]

Aren't warm Pacific waters simply shoved farther west in a La Nina?

(Always leery of "warmer" and "colder" claims.)

[x-y-no]

Aren't warm Pacific waters simply shoved farther west in a La Nina?

(Always leery of "warmer" and "colder" claims.)

Air/Sea interaction is complex, but basically La Nina/El/Nino events impact global temperature because of changes in the surface area of warm/cold anomalies and efficiency of heat transfer due to changes in mean wind.

[xironman]

You can find a nice discussion of ENSO's effect on climate measurements in a recent Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society publication http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/82 Fawcett 2008, pg 141.

[gigabite]

There is no La nina at this moment.

... but if you look at history of the large(10-200 year periods+) cool periods you see a solar min on each one.

I would like to see the citation for that statement. I don't know of any resource that has a fine enough resolution to make that claim.

a solar cycle is only 12 years ( Jupiter Based Trend Analysis )

I don't think that there is enough tree ring date to even get a planet wide 10 degree grid.

[Category 5]

Not surprised, we had a very cool August here (More 50s than 90s).