Cookie wrote:trying to find more information on this. can anyone help?
Yes I can help
http://agalegainfo.crtvg.es/videos/http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/Much less cold - WBFL above 1000m move into the South on Weds, but it still stays very unsettled as the deep convective low (nr 20W) moves east along the South Coast. Models in agreement for some very heavy rain hail and Thunder to move east giving local flooding in places. At the same time the snow pushes north into N Ireland, S Scotland giving several cms in places and the front actually slows down and the warmer air occludes out to the east, hence we keep cold air in the north maintaining the risk of Sleet and Snow right into Thursday. (Though by then largely Scotland only)
Another deep depression with origins well south of 40N comes NE on Thursday and moves close to the South Coast again Around 975mbs overnight into Friday , another very heavy band of Rain comes NE (another 20mm possible) and this band then pushes N to rejuvenate the occlusion by then almost stationary across Scotland giving more snow. On Friday, the cold air spills back South again and the rain turns to Snow again across parts of N England and N Ireland
Windy at times in the South, though the strongest winds occurring over the Channel Islands and N France.
Beyond the end of the week, there have been discrepancies in the handling of an extremely low latitude low which moves ENE, then NE towards Western Europe. Various models have deepened/ not deepened this low depending on its speed NW at the same time as an active shortwave runs SE
towards Iberia. This low develops NE of Puerto Rico in the relatively deep tropics and moves ENE towards Maderia and the Canary Islands before turning NE, and deepening as it engages both an active shortwave and two Jets. The low on the 12Z Models interacts with the Left exit of a propagating NW;'ly Jet diving south of the Azores and the right entrance of a SW'ly Jet over the SW Approaches and English Channel. This combination allows for massive amounts of upper level diffluence and allows large scale ascent to take place forcing the low to deepen potentially explosively. It will also have PVA and a large thermal divide (Deep layer PM air diving SE and warm Subtropical air riding NE) (Theta W across the low goes from sub 6C to > 12C creating a huge amount of precipitation.
12Z Models are in actual good agreement over the low, with it coming NE west of Iberia. GFS has it furthest NW (earlier deepening) and pushes it across the SE of England, whereas the ECM and UKMO GM keep it over NE France (both have a deep low coming NE across NC France at T+144, ECM then moves it into Holland slowly filling) IN the GFS solution the low is closer to the cold air over Scotland and sucks it SE into the Low and the precip turns to Snow, however the more eastern movement in the ECM and the faster movement, means this struggles to occur. Anyway - lots will change before this occurs - however the development needs watching
http://twitter.com/Netweatherhttp://forum.netweather.tv/topic/61839-sundays-low/
