Tropical Cyclone Formation Dates

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

What amazes me is when these systems get kicked off the coastlines, they dont seem to be all that stron...in terms of pressure. 1000mb for a LP is pretty weak, but I know that once its off of land they tak on all the warmer waters and then it feeds into a monster. Interesting to see though.

[Anonymous]

This is going to be a close call as far as the formation date...

UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN REISSUED/230430Z/231800ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
ABIO10 PGTW 230430
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) A PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN LOCATED
OVER LAND THE PAST WEEK IS NOW NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 19.0S0 122.0E5,
APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OVER OPEN
WATER, BUT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS OVER LAND. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS UNDER EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB.
BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE LLCC TO OPEN WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS FAIR.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED FAIR SUSPECT AREA IN PARA 2.B.
(1).
4. RELEASED BY: CAPT VILPORS, USAF
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/RONSSE/SPANSKI/COOK/NUTONGLA//

NNNN

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WST on Sunday the 23rd of February 2003
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

A tropical low lies over western parts of the Kimberley district. This low will
move offshore over the next 24 hours.

Location :near 19S 123E
east southeast of Broome
Central Pressure :1002hPa
Recent movement :west at 10 kilometres per hour [6 knots]

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Monday : low
Tuesday : moderate
Wednesday : high

REMARKS - Most likely movement of the low is towards the west initially, before
recurving towards the Pilbara coast later in the week.

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more **