90s is poorly organized at the moment but sheer is low in the area and Chances of development are fair. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)
91s Winds 25-30kts and heading toward the Cocos Islands.
WTXS21 PGTW 042000
UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 041951Z FEB 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5S6 98.5E2 TO 12.0S3 93.9E1
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041730Z5 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 98.0E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1S2 98.4E1 IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 98.0E7, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND OVERNIGHT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATE THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
052000Z7.//
NNNN
JTWC text...
UNCLAS //N03145//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN/
OCEAN/031800Z/041800ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
ABIO10 PGTW 031800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3S5
115.9E6, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S9 114.6E2 APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAVA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS POORLY
DEFINED CONVECTION NEAR A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH A POINT SOURCE
NEAR THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
NEAR 10.7S8 98.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK LLCC AND ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
SHOWS GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/KENDALL/JACOBS/VAN LOAN//
NNNN\
THOUGHTS?????