Australia's 11-month drought might last through 2003

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SYDNEY - Australia's 11-month drought might last through 2003, further devastating crops and livestock in one of the world's top farm trade nations, a leading climatologist warned yesterday.


Dr Roger Stone, director of the Queensland Government Climate Centre, denied that his view represented a split among Australian meteorologists over when the killer drought was likely to end.
But he went on to accuse the national Bureau of Meteorology of following a "party line" in presenting the mainstream forecast that the drought-inducing El Nino weather effect was likely to begin to break down soon.

Stone is telling industry groups that a 20-30 percent chance of Australia's drought lasting in 2003 could not be ignored.

"If you went for a test with a medical specialist who said only 20 percent of the tests are showing you have the potential to develop cancer, what would you do?" Stone asked.

Farmers should put crop and livestock decisions on hold until El Nino has ended, or when when more definitive information was available from the Pacific Ocean, he said.

The Bureau of Meteorology's statements that El Nino should begin to break down by March or April showed a single-minded focus on forecasting rather than risk management, he said.

Stone is basing his forecasts on the same 11 complex computer models of the current El Nino which the Bureau of Meterology is using. He agrees with the Bureau that nine models predict the El Nino should have broken down by May.

But the Bureau says nine models predict a return to neutral conditions in the eastern Pacific in five months' time.

Stone says three do not.

EL NINO REGENERATION THREAT

The three models, two from the United States and one from Japan, are suggesting a regeneration of some type of El Nino system, or some manifestation of an El Nino system, he said.

The three models predicting a regeneration of the El Nino were the same as those that predicted the onset of El Nino 12 to 18 months ago, Stone also said.

"They happen to be the best models," he said.

A Bureau of Meteorology spokesman told Reuters this week that it was standing by its established position, that the El Nino was likely to begin to break down around March or April.

This was despite widespread recent references by Australia's Deputy Prime Minister, farmer John Anderson, to reputable forecasts that the drought could last through 2003.

Farmers, already pushed to the brink of ruin by the driest 11 months in recorded Australian history, voiced consternation yesterday about the competing forecasts.

"The poor old farmers are left in the middle, where one (official forecaster) is saying the drought may break (in) autumn and one of other official weather forecasters are saying it could extend ... to the end of the year," a spokeswoman for Queensland grain growers association Agforce commented to Reuters.

"If more and more people start saying it's going to be the end of the year, then that is going to impact on how producers go about their business," she said.

Farmers face crucial decisions in coming months on whether to plant winter crops, after the 11-month drought slashed the last wheat crop to less than 10 million tonnes from 24.5 million.

Cattle and sheep producers face the dilemma of whether to continue with expensive hand-feeding, or to sell for slaughter.

"Do they hold on? Can they afford to hold on, feeding stock for that long?" the Agforce spokeswoman asked.