The Next New Orleans?

[Hurritrax]

Check out this link from the AP showing the projected impact of a Cat 5 hurricane similar to Katrina on Miami, Galveston/Houston, Lake Okeechobee, New York, and the Outer Banks......

All of these scenarios are really scary, but the one that really gets me is the Outer Banks projection....I'm only about 60 miles west of these beaches on the Albemarle Sound. UNBELIEVABLE!

Give the link a few seconds to load.......

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/interactives/_national/hurricanes_cities/index.html?SITE=NCWIN&SECTION=HOME

[O Town]

Hmmm, interesting. But I found it funny with the video of Miami its supposed to be showing wind and surge of a cat.5 and not one roof or shingle got blown off, or one window gone. I am sure a few of those building would be completely gone as well after cat.5 winds and surge.

[vbhoutex]

The scenario for Houston/Galveston is unfortunately probably real close to what would happen. If this area ever gets hit with a CAT 5 it will not only be devastating for our area, but for the country due to the amount of refining capacity that would be shut down for weeks. Gas prices now would look cheap after a CAT 5 hit here.

[CrazyC83]

A Category 5 into New York is virtually impossible as the water temperatures are too low to support such. It would probably weaken to a Category 3 by then, but still the surge would be catastrophic...

[olddude]

Interesting indeed.

[Alladin]

Check out this link from the AP showing the projected impact of a Cat 5 hurricane similar to Katrina on Miami, Galveston/Houston, Lake Okeechobee, New York, and the Outer Banks......

All of these scenarios are really scary, but the one that really gets me is the Outer Banks projection....I'm only about 60 miles west of these beaches on the Albemarle Sound. UNBELIEVABLE!

Give the link a few seconds to load.......

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/interactives/_national/hurricanes_cities/index.html?SITE=NCWIN&SECTION=HOME

Only one Category 5 hurricane (Camille, 1969) has ever occurred north of 30º latitude since records have been kept. So, as you correctly point out, it is unbelievable for your area.

[2 Seam Fastball]

I am a New Yorker. I as a weather fanatic often wondered if a hurricane could hit nyc directly. One did in 1938 but it just missed NYC head on but came over western Long Island. That was a catagory 1 storm they say it went up into New England and caused major flooding in Rhode Island. Its intensity may have increased higher.

[wxman57]

The scenario for Houston/Galveston is unfortunately probably real close to what would happen. If this area ever gets hit with a CAT 5 it will not only be devastating for our area, but for the country due to the amount of refining capacity that would be shut down for weeks. Gas prices now would look cheap after a CAT 5 hit here.

Note (again), that storm surge is much more dependent upon the expanse of a hurricanes stronger winds than the peak wind in any small area of the hurricane. Thus, a Cat 3 the size of Katrina can produce a much larger surge than a typical Cat 5. So replace "Cat 5" with "Cat 3" on those graphics and that's what a large Cat 3 can produce as far as a storm surge.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I am a New Yorker. I as a weather fanatic often wondered if a hurricane could hit nyc directly. One did in 1938 but it just missed NYC head on but came over western Long Island. That was a catagory 1 storm they say it went up into New England and caused major flooding in Rhode Island. Its intensity may have increased higher.

I thought the 1938 Westhampton storm was a minimal Cat 3 at landfall in New York. It was probably well on its way to extra-tropical transition, based on an estimated forward speed in excess of 50 mph. It caused significant storm surge flooding in Eastern Long Island, parts of Connecticut and Southern Massachusetts, and fresh water flooding in the Connecticut River valley. It was supposedly a Cat 5 off Florida. Not sure how they determined that, but with the far limit of 26º water about the latitude of ACY at the peak of the season, any storm heading for New York would be weakening for about the last 200 miles over water, at least, unless it was getting baroclinic support (like I'm guessing the 1938 storm did).



I live about 60 miles inland, and am not worried about storm surge at all, mainly wind damage, although I am in a brick house, and the tree in the front yard is just getting big enough to pose some danger to the house if it toppled. Water came up to the front door during Allison, so I am not completely immune to fresh water flooding, but Allison was a very extreme case.

[MGC]

The next New Orleans? How about New Orleans again. I was just home last weekend. Lots of rebuilding. St Benard Parish is looking better all the time. Only problem is the levees. If another Katrina or Betsy should hit the NO area this year it will be Katrina all over again. Betsy put 20 feet of water on the east side of Plaquemines Parish. Had Betsy tracked 30 miles futher north Orleans Parish would have been completly flooded like Katrina did....MGC

[jasons2k]

Tampa-St. Pete.

[jasons2k]

Also, just a minor note, there are technically three ways off of Galveston Island (not one as the article states): I-45, the ferry, and the "long way" off via Surfside-Freeport.

[JonathanBelles]

Tampa-St. Pete.

yea I was gonna say something. Most Tampa would go under, and half of Pinellas county including St. Pete would go under if a cat 5 made a direct hit.

[Opal storm]

A Category 5 into New York is virtually impossible as the water temperatures are too low to support such. It would probably weaken to a Category 3 by then, but still the surge would be catastrophic...

Even a cat 2 or weak 3 hurricane right into NYC would be on the catastrophic level IMO. Not just the surge but also the wind. I don't think a lot of those old run down buildings in that city would survive true sustained hurricane force winds.

[GalvestonDuck]

Also, just a minor note, there are technically three ways off of Galveston Island (not one as the article states): I-45, the ferry, and the "long way" off via Surfside-Freeport.

They should have said "one evacuation route" off the Island.

The ferry doesn't count for squat as an evacuation "route" because there are rarely more than two boats running at a time and it's my understanding that Bolivar Peninsula residents who work in Galveston are granted first boarding rights from the Island in order to get to their homes in time for preparation and evacuation. Furthermore, the ferries don't operate 24 hours away during stormy weather and can't be relied upon. It was a mess during Allison when UTMB staff and other Galveston-based workers needed to get back to Bolivar and had to use the ferry.

As for the "long way," it's also one of the most dangerous ways. The bridge from San Luis Pass is a narrow, two-lane bridge. Once the west end of the island starts flooding, forget it. It's bad enough to be driving 4/5 of the length of the island (about 20 miles) away from the I-45 Causeway. But it's worse when Hwy 3005 is impassable because of high water.

Thankfully, the Causeway is being rebuilt with more lanes.