2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman22]

We are all familiar with tropical storms forming off of waves off the coast of Africa, but the GFS wants tropical storms to form IN AFRICA. Look at the area of vorticity in Mauritania
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_z850_vort_nafr_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_mslpa_nafr_19.png

Nothing would shock me anymore at this point...

Thats just GFS being GFS

Literally impossible for a tropical system to form over land

toss it

While i don't believe the GFS, that's not true sometimes tropical cyclones can form over land or be designated over land, like Claudette last month.

[tolakram]

It's a closed low over that area. Nothing unusual, we see this most years.

[Category5Kaiju]

We are all familiar with tropical storms forming off of waves off the coast of Africa, but the GFS wants tropical storms to form IN AFRICA. Look at the area of vorticity in Mauritania
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_z850_vort_nafr_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_mslpa_nafr_19.png

Nothing would shock me anymore at this point...

Thats just GFS being GFS

Literally impossible for a tropical system to form over land

toss it

While rare and something that definitely should not happen in July, something like this (or at least close to it) did happen with Florence in 2018.

[Blinhart]

We are all familiar with tropical storms forming off of waves off the coast of Africa, but the GFS wants tropical storms to form IN AFRICA. Look at the area of vorticity in Mauritania
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_z850_vort_nafr_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_mslpa_nafr_19.png

Nothing would shock me anymore at this point...

Thats just GFS being GFS

Literally impossible for a tropical system to form over land

toss it

Funny, it has happened before, and will happen again.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Some hints in the long range of a sharp wave axis in the Bahamas on both the ECMWF and GFS. Beyond that, I don't see any hint of tropical cyclone development. That suppressed CCKW really is going to keep a lid on things for now.

[Category5Kaiju]

But yeah other than that it seems like mid-July may not be very active in the Atlantic (EPAC is expected to be active though). Although do be on the lookout near the end of the month as the strong upward rising motion is expected to come into place starting then; that *could* signal an early start to Cape Verde season. Also keep in mind that we could easily get one or so "popup" storms during the suppressed phase that models do not forsee well, especially storms like 2020's Bertha, Dolly, Edouard, or Kyle or 2021's Bill or Danny.

[aspen]

The GFS has constantly been trying — and failing — to develop something in the SW Caribbean during the first half of next week. Might be an area to watch in a few days. The GFS does attempt to spin up something in that area, but ends up developing a TC in the EPac; the Euro and CMC, by comparison, have all of that tropical energy/moisture going right into the EPac.

[Category5Kaiju]

The GFS has constantly been trying — and failing — to develop something in the SW Caribbean during the first half of next week. Might be an area to watch in a few days. The GFS does attempt to spin up something in that area, but ends up developing a TC in the EPac; the Euro and CMC, by comparison, have all of that tropical energy/moisture going right into the EPac.

The GFS does have a bias toward spinning up a higher than actual number of EPAC systems, and this is especially a pattern I have noticed when CAGs form. So sometimes if you see it spin up like 3 storms there, it's more than likely just 1 that ends up really forming (and given that this year is expected to fall into - ENSO territory, this simply reinforces what I think at least).

[CFLHurricane]

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rTCFP_024.gif

It looks like this model is picking up some of the central Atlantic swirling also evident on the MMIC-TPW. This July may be full of surprises all month long!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Nothing would shock me anymore at this point...

Thats just GFS being GFS

Literally impossible for a tropical system to form over land

toss it

Funny, it has happened before, and will happen again.

When has a tropical system formed hundreds of miles inland with no water underneath?

Please...redpill me.

[Europa non è lontana]

When has a tropical system formed hundreds of miles inland with no water underneath?

Please...redpill me.

Indian land depressions form hundreds of kilometres inland quite commonly.

[CourierPR]

Thats just GFS being GFS

Literally impossible for a tropical system to form over land

toss it

Funny, it has happened before, and will happen again.

When has a tropical system formed hundreds of miles inland with no water underneath?

Please...redpill me.

There was evidence that Donna, in 1960 was already a storm before exiting Africa.

[GeneratorPower]

Thats just GFS being GFS

Literally impossible for a tropical system to form over land

toss it

Funny, it has happened before, and will happen again.

When has a tropical system formed hundreds of miles inland with no water underneath?

Please...redpill me.

There is ongoing meteorological study and debate over whether some waves are already TDs or TSs when they emerge from Africa. This has been the case since I started studying these things in 2004.

[aspen]

The Euro shows a tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa on July 21st and reaching 40W by the 23rd. This is all the way out at the end of the run, but it might be worth watching to see if it does make it into the Western Atlantic because the enhanced Kelvin Wave arrives between July 26th and August 1st. Depending on where the AEW is, the CCKW could help trigger development, similar to Elsa.

[InfernoFlameCat]

We are all familiar with tropical storms forming off of waves off the coast of Africa, but the GFS wants tropical storms to form IN AFRICA. Look at the area of vorticity in Mauritania
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_z850_vort_nafr_19.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2021070618/gfs_mslpa_nafr_19.png

Nothing would shock me anymore at this point...

Thats just GFS being GFS

Literally impossible for a tropical system to form over land

toss it

Australian mode activated. Mate please look at all the tropical cyclones in Australia and see how many form over land. This is certainly possible. The Gfs may be crazy but it has happened as these wonderful folks here have noted. Also tropical storm Julia says hello from 2016

[Category5Kaiju]

Nothing would shock me anymore at this point...

Thats just GFS being GFS

Literally impossible for a tropical system to form over land

toss it

Australian mode activated. Mate please look at all the tropical cyclones in Australia and see how many form over land. This is certainly possible. The Gfs may be crazy but it has happened as these wonderful folks here have noted. Also tropical storm Julia says hello from 2016

While it was not necessarily a storm that formed over land, Kelvin is a great example of how at least when it comes down to Australia, storms can maintain tropical characteristics for a long time over the continent. Kelvin even had an eye as it went over the desert!

[SFLcane]

Who says we can’t look into August?

Control run from ecmwf weeklies. A ton of variance between members

[Stormybajan]

Who says we can’t look into August?

Control run from ecmwf weeklies. A ton of variance between members

https://i.postimg.cc/d01VtpX3/7-FBBF7-C7-C29-A-4-C91-9207-D19-BB55-F1-FDE.jpg

If this verifies and August 27th theres a MDR disturbance present then we might have to comeback to this as the Greatest long rang forecast of alltime

[Blown Away]

Who says we can’t look into August?

Control run from ecmwf weeklies. A ton of variance between members

https://i.postimg.cc/d01VtpX3/7-FBBF7-C7-C29-A-4-C91-9207-D19-BB55-F1-FDE.jpg

If EURO nails this Aug 27th forecast, it gets the "Mojo" back it lost during Elsa...

[Category5Kaiju]

The title of this thread is "Out thru day 16." That is "Out thru day 45."

Well, I'll definitely check back on August 27 to see what the tropics have. An easy to remember date since that is also my birthday.