Something soon in the GOM?

[southerngale]

I just read this on a local news site. Is there something expected to head into the GOM?

Forecast Discussion

Weak front will push drier air into the area overnight with lower dewpoints working in the next couple of days. This will help some on our high humidity we've had lately. No rain expected the next few days as high pressure remains in control. By the middle and end of the week data shows a mid to upper level low approaching from the east and southeast. Should see scattered showers and thunderstorms with this feature. We'll also keep an eye on the Gulf this week.

Forecasted By: Kerry Cooper
Last Updated: September 3, 2005 - 4:47PM

http://www.kfdm.com/weather.shtml

[hicksta]

The system near flordia drift w into the gulf

[spinfan4eva]

The wx Channel also says thunderstorms may get organized in the western gulf

[LaBreeze]

Shhh! Let's not say that too loudly.

[Jagno]

NOT the western Gulf. We just can't evacuate the evacuees AGAIN! Sorry to decline the invitation and warm welcome but now is just not a good time for us to be entertaining.

[scostorms]

In the WORST case scenario, and lets say a cat.1 struck SE Louisiana and MS, would be be talking about total damage from the structures being weakend from Katrina? I would imagine a lot of flying debris from the damage already on the ground.

[spinfan4eva]

This is what is on TWC Hurricane Central:

A broad area of low pressure extends from the Gulf of Mexico into the Bahamas and is a focusing mechanism for thunderstorm development. There are several clusters of thunderstorms along this weak boundary that could develop tropical characteristics if they persist. Just off the Texas Gulf Coast a cluster of thunderstorms has developed at the end of this boundary and could produce locally heavy rain from Houston to Brownsville. Although tropical cyclones can develop in any month, the climatological peak for tropical cyclone development is September 10 in the Atlantic Ocean Basin.

[Hurrilurker]

In the WORST case scenario, and lets say a cat.1 struck SE Louisiana and MS, would be be talking about total damage from the structures being weakend from Katrina? I would imagine a lot of flying debris from the damage already on the ground.

The good news would be not a lot left to destroy and very few people remaining in the area.

[Kennethb]

Winds would not be the biggest issue. Any above normal tides would be devestating. The breaches around NO are not filled in. And once they are closed will take even longer to get them strengthened. Any additional flooding would increase the estimated time of 30-40 days to drain the city.

Even a Cat 1 going into Texas can cause enough increase in tides to be a problem.

[Jagno]

I know that this is now an area of great concern but can some of our pro's please tell me if we need to reclaim all of our hurricane preps. Ya see, most of us here in SW La have sent our generators, chain saws, ... to SE La, Miss. & Alabama to friends and family for clean-up efforts. Mine left yesterday along with my 40 Gallon portable fuel tank full of premium unleaded to fill it. Yes, we knew full well that we were still in prime time hurricane season but as of two days ago some of the weather reports indicated nothing was a threat to the U.S. so we felt it was the least we could do to help those in the affected areas while we are running the shelters down here. Now I'm getting worried and we are starting to feel like we may have made a huge mistake in sending off our supplies. Please give me your best analysis at this point.

[beachbum_al]

Pleae don't say that too loud. We are just now picking up the pieces.

[cajungal]

In the WORST case scenario, and lets say a cat.1 struck SE Louisiana and MS, would be be talking about total damage from the structures being weakend from Katrina? I would imagine a lot of flying debris from the damage already on the ground.

Even a tropical storm would be bad here, sending flying debris like missles. There is not much more to destroy esp on the MS coast and the low lying areas in New Orleans and the parishes just east of the city.

[KWT]

any system that comes close to NO could cause massive amounts of damage.The worst thing that could happen is for it to stall in that area with it gaining strength to the south with NO in the NE quadrant.

Even thought Katrina has cooled SSt's down a tad,i'd suspect in favorable atmopshere SST's are still ample for a major sadly.

[ChaserUK]

what system are we talking about here?

[aerojad]

In the WORST case scenario, and lets say a cat.1 struck SE Louisiana and MS, would be be talking about total damage from the structures being weakend from Katrina? I would imagine a lot of flying debris from the damage already on the ground.

I'd liken it to setting a collapsed building on fire.

[jenshops]

Why borrow trouble and cause unneccessary concern? Wouldn't it be wise to wait until there is actually something there to talk about?

[southerngale]

Why borrow trouble and cause unneccessary concern? Wouldn't it be wise to wait until there is actually something there to talk about?

If you're talking to me, I'm not trying to cause concern. I read my local forecast and it didn't give details, other than watching the Gulf, so I was asking others here, who may know if the models/forecasters are predicting something to develop.

There's nothing wrong with that.

[cjrciadt]

For those in the GOM, the "mess" will stay on the east coast dumping rain into Central FL. until Wed. so the closet it may enter the GOM would be Thurs. or even later if it becomes anything.

[dixiebreeze]

Why borrow trouble and cause unneccessary concern? Wouldn't it be wise to wait until there is actually something there to talk about?

It may be too late by then. That's the purpose of this forum, to discuss what might be potential threats.

[N2FSU]

From the Tallahassee NWS Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT SUN SEP 4 2005

AS WE ENTER THIS WORK WEEK...MAIN VIEW WILL BE SOUTH WITH DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE WRN BAHAMAS. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES. ON MONDAY...
NAM & GFS SIMILAR WITH KEEPING THE LOW OVER FAR SE FL...WITH
MOISTURE INFLUX OVER THAT AREA. PARTLY CLOUDY OVER SE PARTS OF CWA
WITH ISOLATED TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS...WHILE REST DRY. BUT INTO TUESDAY
MODELS DIVERGE. NAM WEAKENS LO...KEEPS IT OPEN & DRIFTS IT SW WITH
ALMOST ON LOCAL IMPACT...WHILE GFS CONTINUES CLOSED CIRCULATION &
DRIFTS IT MORE WEST TO ECNTRL FLA COAST TUES NIGHT. WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS...IT CRAWLS ACROSS PENINSULA INTO EXTREME ERN ERN GULF BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. OTHER LONG RANGE MODELS VARY WITH DGEX KICKING
STRONGER LOW UP ATLC COAST AND ECMWF KEEPING WEAKER LOW IN SE GULF.
NHC SAID SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SYSTEM
SHOULD BE MONITORED. RIGHT NOW TOO MUCH MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR HI
CONFIDENCE BUT EITHER WAY MAIN LOCAL IMPACT...IF ANY...WOULD BE SE
BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY... ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE WATERS. CURRENT
GRIDS REFLECT CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH SOME CLOUDS & LOW CHANCES
OF RAIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BIG QUESTION IN EARLY EXTENDED IS FINAL DISPOSITION OF LOW. WITH SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL RUNS...HAVE NOT GONE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED AS THE MODEL TRENDS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT. GFS DOES LIFT
THIS FEATURE W-NW TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...THEN NEAR
THE FL BIG BEND ON FRIDAY. WINDS & SEAS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT UP A BIT
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH & THIS SYSTEM TO SOUTH. WITH THIS SCENARIO...SE AL WILL
STILL BE THE DRIEST. REST OF TROPICS REMAIN QUITE.