This almost happenned with Alberto-Has it ever b4 occurred?

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spinfan4eva
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This almost happenned with Alberto-Has it ever b4 occurred?

#1 Postby spinfan4eva » Thu Jun 15, 2006 8:23 pm

Some models showed alberto splitting into 2 systems and one going through Florida and one hanging back into the gulf. Had that happenned, What would the low hanging in the gulf have been called? Alberto redeveloped a new LLC and almost became a hurricane but that old LLC was Alberto too-What if it drifted westward away from the new Alberto and redeveloped. Has this ever happenned and if so, what did the NHC do?
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#2 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Jun 15, 2006 8:25 pm

Ivan in 2004 re-formed in the gulf after doing that, it kept the name Ivan
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#3 Postby Scott_inVA » Thu Jun 15, 2006 10:24 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Ivan in 2004 re-formed in the gulf after doing that, it kept the name Ivan


Correct...although it was not the original, intact center of Low Pressure. A bad decision (and a very most devisive decision within the Agency)

My blood pressure has never been higher than when TPC/NHC came out with their Ivan II Forecast/Advisory. :roll: :x

Scott
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#4 Postby curtadams » Thu Jun 15, 2006 10:30 pm

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Ivan in 2004 re-formed in the gulf after doing that, it kept the name Ivan


Not analogous. The piece of Ivan that later reformed split off after Ivan had been downrated. Alberto would have split off a piece while still a tropical storm. Some models even showed *both* system crossing FL, one after the other.
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#5 Postby Scott_inVA » Thu Jun 15, 2006 10:41 pm

curtadams wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:Ivan in 2004 re-formed in the gulf after doing that, it kept the name Ivan


Not analogous. The piece of Ivan that later reformed split off after Ivan had been downrated. Alberto would have split off a piece while still a tropical storm. Some models even showed *both* system crossing FL, one after the other.


Think the question related to how names are handled. Were a "piece of energy" from Alberto to have formed a second COC, it would have been AL022006.

Scott
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#6 Postby spinfan4eva » Thu Jun 15, 2006 11:41 pm

Scott_inVA wrote:
curtadams wrote:
Hurricane Floyd wrote:Ivan in 2004 re-formed in the gulf after doing that, it kept the name Ivan


Not analogous. The piece of Ivan that later reformed split off after Ivan had been downrated. Alberto would have split off a piece while still a tropical storm. Some models even showed *both* system crossing FL, one after the other.


Think the question related to how names are handled. Were a "piece of energy" from Alberto to have formed a second COC, it would have been AL022006.

Scott


Well, I kinda was but on monday, there was the LLC Alberto and then it formed a new LLC Northeast and stregthenned to 70mph which became the new LLC which would obviously remain Alberto-but had that old LLC which had been named Alberto before drifted away from the new Alberto LLC and reformed into a TC, It would then be storm 2 AKA Beryl?
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#7 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Jun 18, 2006 8:47 am

Well I still love the Forecast Discussion from Ivan that even the hurricane specialists were in a big disagreement on the validity of retaining the name Ivan or not ...

(I love the denotation of the after a long and sometimes heated discussion regarding Ivan's structure and whether or not the name should or should not be retained, it was determined that the system will retain the name Ivan) ...

in the actual prelim cyclone report this is what is written ..

Even as an extratropical low, the remnant circulation of Ivan was identifiable in both surface and upper-air data. Over the next 3 days, the low moved south and southwestward and eventually crossed the southern Florida peninsula from the Atlantic the morning of 21 September and emerged over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later that afternoon. As Ivan moved westward across the warm water of the Gulf, the low began to re-acquire warm core, tropical characteristics as showers and thunderstorms started developing near the well-defined low-level circulation center. During the morning of 22 September, Ivan completed a large anticyclonic loop and by 1800 UTC reconnaissance aircraft reports indicated that it had become a tropical depression again over the central Gulf of Mexico. Ivan regained tropical strength 6 h later when it was located about 120 n mi south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Tropical Storm Ivan turned northwestward and made landfall as a tropical depression in extreme southwestern Louisiana around 0200 UTC 24 September. After landfall, Ivan quickly dissipated later that morning over the upper Texas coastal area about 20 n mi northwest of Beaumont. Including its extratropical phase, Ivan existed for 22.5 days and produced a track more than 5600 n mi long.


To this day though, I still do not see the actual surface reflection that had maintained itself, but only the piece of the 500mb vorticity structure. In a similar instance of a system crossing from the Atlantic into the Pacific, Hurricane Iris did such a feat in 2001 ...

Near the time of the peak intensity, the hurricane hunter plane reported three small concentric eyewalls and an hour later the inner eyewall collapsed . The maximum winds then temporarily decreased to 115 knots. The hurricane moved on a track between the west and west-southwest and based on radar from Belize, Iris made landfall in southern Belize in the vicinity of Monkey River Town around 0200 UTC 9 October. This location is about 60 n mi south of Belize City. Iris intensified just before landfall and the maximum winds peaked at 125 knots with a minimum pressure of 948 mb. Thereafter, Iris continued westward and weakened rapidly over the mountains of Central America. The low-level center could no longer be traced by 1800 UTC 9 October. Figure 1 shows a Iris near its peak intensity


And here's an excerpt from 2001's EPAC Tropical Storm Manuel ...

Tropical Storm Manuel was a weak and generally disorganized eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone that formed from the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Iris.
a. Synoptic History
Manuel formed from the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Iris, which struck southern Belize as a Category Four hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) early on 9 October. By 1800 UTC, the core circulation of Iris had dissipated over the mountains of eastern Mexico, while new convection was developing a short distance away over the waters of the Pacific. This area became better organized over the next 18 hours and became Tropical Depression Fifteen-E at 1200 UTC 10 October, about 175 n mi south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. (Note: current operational policy is that tropical cyclones crossing into another basin retain their original name; since Iris had dissipated as a tropical cyclone prior to entering the eastern North Pacific basin, the new depression was properly named Fifteen-E, rather than Iris.)

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#8 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:02 am

Hurricane Floyd wrote:Ivan in 2004 re-formed in the gulf after doing that, it kept the name Ivan


that dosen't count i thinki they are asking what would the sec. low be called if it breaks off of the first tropical system and have two at the same time from one tropical system????????????????
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#9 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:16 am

God I remember sitting on the back porch with no power after Ivan and hearing on the radio Ivan was coming back, I just remember thinking son of a....
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#10 Postby Scott_inVA » Sun Jun 18, 2006 9:40 am

My comment:
A bad decision (and a very most devisive decision within the Agency)
was based in part on their comment:
7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

And on a series of emails I exchanged with someone at HRD. This person agrees with SF, me and many others that there was no consistent surface reflection...indeed...sfc obs show TPCs logic to be flawed.

Couple this with negligible vort maxes @ 950MB from Friday 9/17 to Wed 9/22 and I'll never comprehend how TPC presented this line of thinking with a straight face. :roll:

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#11 Postby quandary » Sun Jun 18, 2006 11:22 am

I'm pretty sure that just logically, they would name the second system Tropical Depression 2 and then Tropical Storm Beryl. This has little to do with the meterological nature of the storm, but instead to prevent us from having a discontinuous Alberto or two simultaneous Alberto's which would greatly confuse the public. After all, it is primarily the NHC's job to inform the public, and they wouldn't make much sense if they announced that after Alberto had just hit Florida 30 hours before, Alberto was again menacing the Texas coast (or Florida). In the case of Ivan, there was a continous line that TV mets could point to to explain to the public why Ivan was still Ivan. So we'd have to have Beryl, not Alberto 2.
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#12 Postby bsuwx » Mon Jun 19, 2006 9:45 am

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/IV ... hics.shtml

An animated view of Ivan's track...:)
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