TWC Comments

[Frank2]

Last evening a TWC OCM (Jim Cantore) commented that shear is making a big difference in this season's activity. He pointed out that last year at this time, there were 8 named storms (2 being major hurricanes), as opposed to the 3 tropical storms of this season, and, mentioned that the TUTT (and related shear) was playing a major role in the prevention of hurricane formation.

In fact, he showed a five-day loop of Chris, and, it was remarkable to see this storm literally "switch itself off" just as the TUTT reached this system on Wednesday night.

I thought of what he mentioned afterwards, and, even though some might say that "it was also slow in 2004", that is really not an accurate statement, since, even in July of 2004, there were already clear indications (as mentioned by the NHC at that time, if I recall), that a very active period was soon to begin - within a matter of days.

On the other hand, the only thing being mentioned at this time, are statements similar to the comments made on TWC last evening.

Frank

[rainstorm]

upper lows dominate. i expect nothing to develop for awhile of importance.

10/5/2 sounds about right this year. maybe a burst of activity in late aug/sept, if the shear relaxes

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

this pattern is not favorable for tropical formation

[Frank2]

I agree - even though many here know I'm not a big fan of hurricane formation (especially the landfalling kind), in 2004, it was very obvious (even to me) that we were about to enter a very active period that August-October - not so this year...

Frank

[miamicanes177]

15 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes according to Dr. Gray. That is a significant season. It only takes 1 major hurricane landfall to make for an awful season.

[Innotech]

15 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes according to Dr. Gray. That is a significant season. It only takes 1 major hurricane landfall to make for an awful season.

wasnt Camille the only major storm of 69? it obviously wouldnt matter if she was the only storm of the season to form, people will never forget that season. Similarly, I doubt anyone would call 1992 a dud after andrew hit.

n/m Camille was one of several majors. My point is still that it only takes one extrenmely bad hurricane to make a season memorable.

[HURAKAN]

15 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes according to Dr. Gray. That is a significant season. It only takes 1 major hurricane landfall to make for an awful season.

wasnt Camille the only major storm of 69? it obviously wouldnt matter if she was the only storm of the season to form, people will never forget that season. Similarly, I doubt anyone would call 1992 a dud after andrew hit.

1 Tropical Storm ANNA 25 JUL- 5 AUG 60 1002 -
2 Hurricane BLANCHE 11-13 AUG 75 997 1
3 Hurricane CAMILLE 14-22 AUG 165 905 5
4 Hurricane DEBBIE 14-25 AUG 105 951 3
5 Tropical Storm EVE 25-27 AUG 50 996 -
6 Hurricane FRANCELIA 29 AUG- 4 SEP 100 973 3
7 Hurricane GERDA 6-10 SEP 110 979 3
8 Hurricane HOLLY 14-21 SEP 75 984 1
9 Hurricane INGA 20 SEP-15 OCT 100 964 3
10 Hurricane #10 21-26 SEP 65 985 1
11 Tropical Storm #11 24-30 SEP 60 990 -
12 Subtropical Storm 1 29 SEP- 1 OCT 50 996 -
13 Tropical Storm JENNY 1- 6 OCT 40 1000 -
14 Hurricane KARA 7-19 OCT 90 978 2
15 Hurricane LAURIE 17-27 OCT 90 973 2
16 Tropical Storm #16 28-31 OCT 60 990 -
17 Hurricane #17 30 OCT- 7 NOV 65 988 1
18 Hurricane MARTHA 21-25 NOV 80 979 1

Aside from Camille, in 1969 there were other 4 major hurricanes.

[Frank2]

Well, true, but, some seasons had very short busy periods - 1979 always stands out to me - we had three weak tropical storms in June and July, then, we had David and Frederic (which scared everyone into thinking it would be a very long September), then - the season was essentially over, just two weeks into September (even with Henri, which was a very rare September Gulf hurricane, that never made landfall)...

Frank

[tropicsgal05]

Dr. Steve Lyon's said on TWC channel this morning this blob of storms is the word i should use i guess says it will ride the coastline of Louisiana and Texas.

[Dean4Storms]

Come on it is very early August, true the shear has been high in the tropics for June and July thus far, but that is pretty typical, last year was an abberation not the norm. Models continue to indicate an uptick in development as we near the point in which it becomes more favorable in the tropics for development.

I believe we see a very busy second half of August and you can hold me to that.

[Frank2]

Perhaps, but, long-term patterns usually last many months - the active cyclone formation period started in late July, 2004, and lasted through late last year, but, the slow period we are in now, seemed to start during the last month or so of the active period (at about the same time as Wilma, which fought southwesterly shear for several days), and, as CSU mentioned, might be due to a emerging El Nino - I'd have to agree with them, since the Pacific water temps already seemed to be changing last Fall, so, it might get busier, but, it might be limited to the eastern Atlantic, as does happen some seasons.

Frank

[ConvergenceZone]

upper lows dominate. i expect nothing to develop for awhile of importance.

10/5/2 sounds about right this year. maybe a burst of activity in late aug/sept, if the shear relaxes

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

this pattern is not favorable for tropical formation

The shear is already starting to relax. I say a burst of activity beginning at the latest by late next week. This is the first time where we have 3 or 4 POTENTIAL areas to watch.