#89 Postby mempho » Tue Aug 08, 2006 11:21 am
Look at that graphic real hard...on this date we usually have less than 30 storms per 100 years active and less than 20 hurricanes per 100 years. By August 20, the number goes to almost 50 storms per 100 years and by September 10 we have almost one storm for every year. We are a heavy favorite to have a storm active on September 10...and if you can wait just 12 days, we have a 50% chance climatalogically speaking. A lot can change in 12 days weatherwise.
Yes, there is shear and there is SAL. Did you really think that water temps had been the inhibiting factor and the reason for a September peak? I hope not. The main reason that storms do not usually form earlier is because other conditions are not favorable in the Atlantic basin prior to mid-August.
The first week in August has almost always had warm water...so you see that shear, moisture off of Africa, and dry air are the main culprits. Some years it just takes longer for the conditions to get right...last year they got right very early...this year we are more normal.
When will it get better? There's a good chance it will get better over the next three weeks...remember a lot of people didn't even think we would get a storm until August and we had already had three! The "major" hurricane season in the U.S. is August through October...period. And then, after October 20, we fall off a cliff just as fast as we're about to go up one.
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