this says it all

[hurricanedude]

from accuweather...FREE SITE

The Caribbean, the East Coast and the Gulf Coast are all staring right down the barrel of a loaded gun. The tropics are ready to fire big time but, as of yet, nothing has pulled the trigger. Last season was a different sort of an animal with numerous named storms already by this date. This year, there have been three, and none of them caused much trouble. This is not a good time for coastal residents to let their guard down, however. Quite to the contrary, the busiest part of the hurricane season is still ahead. Typically, the meat of the hurricane season runs from mid-August through early October, and rarely have there been numerous storms before August 10. Even more rare is to have a Category 3 or 4 hurricane before that time.

[george_r_1961]

This is what ive been trying to tell our members who post the "slow season" threads. I wanna scream every time I see one.

This has not been a normal year. STATISTICALLY IT IS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL!


This is NOT time for coastal residents to let your guard down and become complacent. There is no credible evidence that any area is "safe" this year.

Hope for the best. ALWAYS prepare for the worst!

[MetroMike]

But keep in mind the average date for a hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin is July 31st. We are past that and will be a few more days at least till we get one.

[george_r_1961]

But keep in mind the average date for a hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin is July 31st. We are past that and will be a few more days at least till we get one.

We still have had 3 named storms though.

Good point nonetheless

[T'Bonz]

I see people saying "Oh, this season is dead/boring". I just smile.

Before the last two seasons, one rarely pays attention to storms before mid-August. Usually from mid-August - mid-October are the busiest times.

So from where I'm sitting, we're just getting to the point where I start to really pay attention (well I'm a weather geek so I do anyhow...but I don't EXPECT anything til around mid-August.)

[Robjohn53]

The Fat Lady has not begun to sing yet.. And don't on any case count her out yet. For some reason she always gets the last word or note in. I'd be more worried about things to come then if they will come. Once agian like they say it only takes one Andrew to be a bad year....

[jasons2k]

Shear is dropping off

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/tatshr.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

Also from my favorite site, ACCUWEATHER...

This one is from my main main, BASTARDI

Early in the season-June and July-the Texas Gulf Coast faces the highest likelihood of a hurricane strike, possibly putting Gulf energy production in the line of fire. As early as July, and through much of the rest of the season, the highest level of risk shifts to the Carolinas. From mid-August into early October, the window is open for hurricane strikes to spread northward to the more densely populated Northeast coast. At the very end of the season, southern Florida also faces significant hurricane risk.

The 2006 Hurricane Season forecast this year is highlighting the region from the Carolinas northeast as the prime area for above-normal risk of impact from hurricane activity. While the Carolina coast has seen direct hurricane landfalls several times since the start of the current multi-decadal cycle in 1995 (Bertha and Fran in 1996, Bonnie in 1998, Floyd in 1999 and Isabel in 2003), Long Island and southeastern New England have escaped a hurricane strike. Other areas at elevated risk are the Gulf Coast from central Louisiana westward, especially early in the season, with an eye toward the southwest Florida Gulf coast later in the season. The only good news is that this pattern suggests a significantly reduced risk, relative to normal, for the eastern and central Gulf Coast - an area hit by four named storms last season, two of which were major hurricanes. The initial landfall forecast is for three major (Category 3 or greater) hurricane hits this year on the United States coast, two hurricanes of Category 2 or less and one tropical storm - a total of six storms making landfall

[mtm4319]

I think there are many more "This season is boring... oh wait no it's not" threads than "This season is boring" threads. Which can be good in the sense that it's important for people to realize the season so far has not been below-normal, but I think there is some over-estimation going on as to just how many people really believe things are going so slowly.

[Stephanie]

That was a great reminder hurricanedude!

[Jim Cantore]

This is what ive been trying to tell our members who post the "slow season" threads. I wanna scream every time I see one.

This has not been a normal year. STATISTICALLY IT IS ALREADY ABOVE NORMAL!

[Acral]

That AccuWeather implies that they can predict landfall of storms not even in existance depletes their credibility to me and makes me think of side-show carnival "psychics" who want to guess your weight or something.

[rainstorm]

the trigger better be pulled pretty soon. 91L was another mis-fire. things can change though, remain vigilant

[hawkeh]

Season Cancel