Jeb Bush

ThunderMate · #1 Postby **ThunderMate** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:55 am

He is holding a press conference at 10:00 am est. time about Ernesto and the Weather Channel will be showing it as well as other news stations as i would imagine.

Dustin · #2 Postby **Dustin** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 8:59 am

I fail to understand why at this point, as most likely this will be a disorganized TD or weak TS after it gets off the coast of Cuba. I mean if it was a cat 3, sure but for a TS?

ObsessedMiami · #3 Postby **ObsessedMiami** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:01 am

Obviously, people in charge, in coordination with NHC, think this will NOT be a disorganized TS.

weatherwoman · #4 Postby **weatherwoman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:01 am

you never know i think it will be a cat 2 at least

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:01 am

Maybe because as of the last advisory the NHC said this:

:eek:

JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST

#6 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:02 am

Dustin wrote:I fail to understand why at this point, as most likely this will be a disorganized TD or weak TS after it gets off the coast of Cuba. I mean if it was a cat 3, sure but for a TS?

Jeb has done a good job the last few seasons besides its alittle different waiting until the last minute to prepare your house versus the whole state. I am glad to see they are pro-active.

artist · #7 Postby **artist** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:04 am

Dustin - are you a pro met? If not, then please don't make comments you can't back up - there are people here needing good info - not just someone making a guess.

#8 Postby **O Town** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:04 am

Dustin wrote:I fail to understand why at this point, as most likely this will be a disorganized TD or weak TS after it gets off the coast of Cuba. I mean if it was a cat 3, sure but for a TS?

Its called being prepared for the worst.

gtalum · #9 Postby **gtalum** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:09 am

Dustin wrote:I fail to understand why at this point, as most likely this will be a disorganized TD or weak TS after it gets off the coast of Cuba. I mean if it was a cat 3, sure but for a TS?

First of all, Ernesto has the possibility of becoming a category 2 or 3 hyurricane hitting one of th emost densely populated areas of the state. FUrther, declaring an emergency so early allows local authorities the leeway and funds they need to activate their emergency preparations proactively.

We've seen what reactive policy does to people (Katrina in New orleans, anyone?), and I prefer proactive policy.

#10 Postby **decgirl66** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:13 am

I agree Otown...I am glad our Governor has the sense to be proactive. He could just sit back and say, "Well, lets's just wait and see..."...isn't that a little bit like what happened in Katrina...and then it was too late. Better safe than sorry I say

Dustin · #11 Postby **Dustin** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:13 am

artist wrote:Dustin - are you a pro met? If not, then please don't make comments you can't back up - there are people here needing good info - not just someone making a guess.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No artist I am not a pro met, and sorry for being a bit jumpy but I feel that everyone may be hyping this one a bit. No I can't say it won't be a cat 2 at landfall as hurricane Charley bombed from a 2 to a 4 in a very short period of time. The thing is that this is going to spend at least 12 hours on land. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html If you look at this link there is also some modestly dry air over Cuba.

Also a simple look to this or any other link about the topography in eastern Cuba shows there are a lot more mountains in eastern Cuba than western Cuba. http://www.nationsencyclopedia.com/Amer ... RAPHY.html This system went from a 75mph cat 1 to a 45 mph ts, after getting off the coast of Haiti and it spent a short time on Haiti. What I am saying is it is going to have a lot of work ahead of it to be able to be a cat 2 by the time of landfall in Florida IMO. Also even when it gets off the coast it has a short time before hitting south FL. There is not a lot of open water between Cuba and Florida. So maybe I just thought it was to soon for a press conference. I apologize.

redmosquito · #12 Postby **redmosquito** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:13 am

Dustin wrote:I fail to understand why at this point, as most likely this will be a disorganized TD or weak TS after it gets off the coast of Cuba. I mean if it was a cat 3, sure but for a TS?

Key words in your comment are "most likely". The State is uncertain, and cannot be caught with its pants down on this. Especially post-Katrina.

#13 Postby **Steve** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:20 am

>>I agree Otown...I am glad our Governor has the sense to be proactive. He could just sit back and say, "Well, lets's just wait and see..."...isn't that a little bit like what happened in Katrina...and then it was too late. Better safe than sorry I say

No one sat back and said "Well, let's wait and see." We needed 72 hours to get the population out of SE Louisiana, and this was accomplished in 48 hours. We had over 90% compliance. It's always better to be safe than sorry (except when dealing with Constitutional issues of course) in this type of scenario and I think the governor is right to put everyone and everything on alert based on the potential. But there is a ridiculous misunderstanding of what transpired with Hurricane Katrina.

Steve

#14 Postby **decgirl66** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:22 am

My apologies, I didn't mean to offend! I did say a little bit, but I obviously didn't have my facts straight. I will be more careful in the future! :bday:

#15 Postby **seaswing** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:22 am

We've seen what reactive policy does to people (Katrina in New orleans, anyone?), and I prefer proactive policy.

Absolutely agree. thats why we (Florida) leads in huricane preparedness and aftermath. Other states should look at our methods and follow.....

#16 Postby **O Town** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:27 am

No mantatory evacuations in the Keys for residents. I found that a bit shocking, they said they will be able to use the shelters in the Keys because of the forecasted wind strenth. I think I would leave if it were me ecspecially from Marathon north.

CajunMama · #17 Postby **CajunMama** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:32 am

Gov. Bush knows first hand what storms can do to his state. And we all know what even just a tropical storm, ie Allison, can do. Regardless if Ernesto will be a hurricane or a tropical storm, Gov. Bush is doing what some here have stated, "Prepare for the worst, hope for the best".

#18 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:45 am

Cajunmama, if Ernesto has to hit Florida, I'm glad we have Gov. Jeb to handle it here. I've also heard the state/FEMA has stockpiled vast amounts of supplies throughout the state for just such an emergency.

#19 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 9:47 am

O Town wrote:No mantatory evacuations in the Keys for residents. I found that a bit shocking, they said they will be able to use the shelters in the Keys because of the forecasted wind strenth. I think I would leave if it were me ecspecially from Marathon north.

it would take a 4 or more to get most of those people to consider evacuating furthermore clogging up hwy 1 is a lousy solution, better off sending the visitors away and tell the residents to stay put.

Jeb Bush

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