Development off Norfolk Va.

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Stormavoider
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Development off Norfolk Va.

#1 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Sep 16, 2006 9:27 am

Looking at THISvisible, something may be brewing.
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#2 Postby Stormavoider » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:29 am

QuikSCAT indicates a closed low.
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#3 Postby Aquawind » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:51 am

It's associated with the frontal boundry that is fizzling off the coast. Given a few days something tropical could develop.

12 hours http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/index.php?prog=12

48 hours - http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/index.php?prog=48
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#4 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 16, 2006 10:54 am

Persistence is the key. Lets watch it for a few days.
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#5 Postby george_r_1961 » Sat Sep 16, 2006 7:29 pm

We have had squally weather here all day associated with this. Heavy showers followed by partial clearing then more heavy showers.
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#6 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:46 am

It looks to be moving south and getting better organized this morning.
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:50 am

Image
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#8 Postby WindRunner » Sun Sep 17, 2006 9:54 am

Image

Decent convection on the west side as well, though a poorly defined LLC.

06Z GFS develops it into a shallow warm-core system in about 48 hours.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 06/30.html

However, neither the CMC, MM5, UKMET, NOGAPS, nor NAM turns this into a warm-core system. TC development unlikely.
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#9 Postby storms in NC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:01 am

On our news here in NC last night at 11pm. TV6 or 9 I can't remember which one but they said that this would be the key player on Hurricane H track if it develop into any thing.
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#10 Postby carve » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:44 am

It does look good.
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#11 Postby Bane » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:02 pm

isn't this an upper level low?
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#12 Postby Stormavoider » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:12 pm

Bane wrote:isn't this an upper level low?
It looks like it's on the surface to me.
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#13 Postby artist » Sun Sep 17, 2006 1:36 pm

I think this is 95l now - look for the thread
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89858
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