Tropical Depression Miriam in EPAC

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 171440
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006

MIRIAM CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ALL
OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT ISLA
CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 29 KT AND GUSTS TO 45
KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. MIRIAM WILL BE MOVING INTO
AN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS...GFDL AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

A 0537 UTC AMSU PASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER. THE FORWARD
MOTION IS ONLY 015/4...SINCE MIRIAM IS EMBEDED WITHIN RATHER WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN MORE
TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT NUDGED A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED
WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 19.2N 113.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 19.9N 113.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 20.7N 113.9W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 21.5N 114.5W 30 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 22.5N 115.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 21/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/CANGIALOSI

[CrazyC83]

Miriam seems to be falling apart right before my eyes...probably a TD if not a low now...

[AnnularCane]

Poor little Miriam. She never had much of a chance.

[WindRunner]

Miriam seems to be falling apart right before my eyes...probably a TD if not a low now...

Well, the were two sets of 00Z models, the first at 30kts and twenty minutes later a run at 35kts. Who knows if they'll keep it as a TS at 11 or not . . . guess we'll know shortly.

[CrazyC83]

Poor little Miriam. She never had much of a chance.

Fujiwhara-ed by Lane at first then turned straight into cooler waters.

[Evil Jeremy]

definiatly a TD by now.

[cycloneye]

Miriam seems to be falling apart right before my eyes...probably a TD if not a low now...

Well, the were two sets of 00Z models, the first at 30kts and twenty minutes later a run at 35kts. Who knows if they'll keep it as a TS at 11 or not . . . guess we'll know shortly.

And that is why storm2k has the policy to wait for the official word to see if this storm is downgraded or not.I would haved changed already the title to TD if no policy about that is at the board.There are lliability issues involved and we certainly are not the OFFICIAL weather site for anyone.

[cycloneye]

140
WTPZ44 KNHC 180241
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006

DESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF CONVECTION-CYCLONE
DECOUPLING...MIRIAM REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM. THE WEAK CONVECTION
OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON SPAWNED A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER WEST
OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL
IS MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CENTER...IN APPROXIMATELY
30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. AT 2100Z...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION
ON ISLA CLARION REPORTED 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KT.
HOWEVER...A 0000Z SHIP OBSERVATION 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
35 KT AND 20-FT SEAS SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...COUNTER TO
THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
STORM DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT
STATE OF MIRIAM THIS SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS DIRECTION BUT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
PACE...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS MIRIAM RESPONDS
TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 19.4N 114.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 19.9N 114.3W 30 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 21.0N 114.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 22.1N 115.8W 25 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 23.1N 116.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 117.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FIORINO/PASCH

Still a storm.

[craptacular]

I used the interactive NASA satellite images to zoom in with the visible for the last 20 images (the final few are dark). The NHC discussion was right on ... it was a pretty cool decoupling. Actually, as the convection cleared out, it looked like there were a couple of vortices spinning around an overall center.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[WindRunner]

HOWEVER...A 0000Z SHIP OBSERVATION 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
35 KT AND 20-FT SEAS SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...COUNTER TO
THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION.

Hence the two runs, one that started before this report came in. Definately sounds like a Chris-ish falling apart, though Miriam had a much smaller distance to fall.

[HURAKAN]

After looking at "TS Miriam." I have to say, "Grace, 2003, you looked so beautiful, and Lee, 2005, you were explendid, and Nichole, 2004, your picture was impressive, and Chris, 2006, your march was heroic."

[Cyclenall]

I can't believe this is a tropical storm...let alone a tropical cyclone. I've seen tropical waves look 20X better then this. One of the worst looking tropical storms I have seen.

[Evil Jeremy]

RIP Miriam. accuattly, you failed to live up to your name, so who cares! lol.

[HURAKAN]

Poor Miriam, she's shoking in dry air. By the way, before leaving make sure you pick up your ticket for 2012!!!