More Cape Verde developments or it's over?

[AJC3]

One thing to consider here is that lack of development in the CV area of the MDR can actually translate into a greater threat for the Caribbean islands, et al. when you consider that (assuming the east ATLC weakeness is at the upper levels and not a deep layer feature - I haven't looked at any analyses today) the t-waves, both strong and weak that come off are much more likely to be steered by lower layer flow and travel more westward.

[cycloneye]

One thing to consider here is that lack of development in the CV area of the MDR can actually translate into a greater threat for the Caribbean islands, et al. when you consider that (assuming the east ATLC weakeness is at the upper levels and not a deep layer feature - I haven't looked at any analyses today) the t-waves, both strong and weak that come off are much more likely to be steered by lower layer flow and travel more westward.

That is correct,about waves that may sneak below the trough and try to develop further west or just east of the Lesser Antilles or in the Western Caribbean.

[TheShrimper]

yeh, but how much more westward before eventually encountering hostile enviorments. CV season is done. It's the caribbean show from here on out. And there will be a show or two.

[AJC3]

yeh, but how much more westward before eventually encountering hostile enviorments. CV season is done. It's the caribbean show from here on out. And there will be a show or two.

From October onward, yes, it's mostly a Caribbean show, but the climo for the last 10 days of September shows PLENTY of central ATLC TC genesis.

[TheShrimper]

You all know the scenario's. If a low runner traverses the atlantic, it will stay at that, a nicarauga threat. Anything that has its birth in the central carib. will be subjected to troughs. So what it boils down to is that the wester gulf is shut down from the Miss. River westward. Meandering off Honduras and the yucatan, eventually spells trouble for the eastern gulf and points south. It's going north then northeast we all know. where that happens, we do not. Could be Tampa southeasterly to PR. We all know the drill. Wait and see time.

[deltadog03]

over

[SouthFloridawx]

You all know the scenario's. If a low runner traverses the atlantic, it will stay at that, a nicarauga threat. Anything that has its birth in the central carib. will be subjected to troughs. So what it boils down to is that the wester gulf is shut down from the Miss. River westward. Meandering off Honduras and the yucatan, eventually spells trouble for the eastern gulf and points south. It's going north then northeast we all know. where that happens, we do not. Could be Tampa southeasterly to PR. We all know the drill. Wait and see time.

I haven't seen any "troughs" that I think you are eluding to come down that far south to say that is the reason why a system would have so much trouble. We're getting to that point soon but, not quite there yet. Like you said we'll have to wait and see.

[Sanibel]

The waves off Africa have really dried up. Could be it for 2006 with the Nino setting in. What could have done in 2006 was a "pre-El Nino" atmospheric.

[Zardoz]

Wow. It got smeared. Any chance at all of something re-forming out of this further to the west?

[caneman]

Actually the area around 40 is looking interesting to me.

[Sanibel]

Hmm. Another maxima. Something could curl up from this.

[Tampa_God]

This is 95L right?

NRL Images

[Emmett_Brown]

10N 27W looking interesting tonight

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

There is a trough to the NW, so not the best upper level conditions, but who knows.

[stormchazer]

96L is arguing the supposed end of the CV season.