Percent of Chance For TC Development (D4SDI)

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Dean4Storms
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#21 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 20, 2006 12:46 pm

Invest
Tropical Disturbance 14N 78W (SW Carib.)


8-20-06


Percent of Chance-
Parameters Met-
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#22 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:27 am

Invest 96L

8-21-06 12Noon est

Percent of Chance- 80%
Parameters Met- A, C, D, E, F, G, H


RESULT- TC Development into TS Debby
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Fri Sep 01, 2006 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#23 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Aug 22, 2006 7:49 pm

Invest 97L

8-22-06 8:00pm est


Percent of Chance- 60%
Parameters Met- C, D, E, F, G, H


8-23-06 5:00pm est


Percent of Chance- 80%
Parameters Met- A, C, D, E, F, G, H


Result- TC Development into Hurricane Ernesto
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Fri Sep 01, 2006 2:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#24 Postby StormScanWx » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:27 pm

*BUMP*
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#25 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 01, 2006 2:51 pm

Invest 98L

9-01-06 4:00pm est

Percent of Chance- 80%
Parameters Met- A, C, D, E, F, G, H


9-03-06 12:00 noon est

Percent of Chance- 40%
Parameters Met- C, E, F, G, H (Removed A, D, as convection has waned and models have beacked off development)


9-04-06 10:00pm est

Percent of Chance- 40%
Parameters Met- C, E, F, G, H

Result- Absorbed into Invest 90L and eventual TD6
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:45 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#26 Postby NFLDART » Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:06 pm

I like this Dean very cool
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#27 Postby MBismyPlayground » Fri Sep 01, 2006 3:31 pm

Well Dean, I don't understand it exactly but it sure seems to work and if this is right, heads up.
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#28 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:33 am

Invest 99L Eastern Carib.

9-02-06 9:30am est


Percent of Chance- 40%
Parameters Met- A, E,F, G, H


9-03-06 12:00 noon est

Percent of Chance- 40%
Parameters Met- A, E, F, G, H


Result- NO DEVELOPMENT
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Mon Sep 04, 2006 9:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#29 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:09 pm

Invest 90L Mid Atlantic TW

9-02-06 6:00pm est


Percent of Chance- 80%

Parameters Met- A, C, D, E, F, G, H


9-03-06 12:00 noon est

Percent of Chance- 80%
Parameters Met- A, C, D, E, F, G, H


Result- TD #6 and Hurricane Florence
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:50 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Percent of Chance For TC Development

#30 Postby hial2 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:38 pm

91L on 8-8-06 at 12noon EST.[/quote]

Do we have a91l ?????
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Re: Percent of Chance For TC Development

#31 Postby RattleMan » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:50 pm

hial2 wrote:91L on 8-8-06 at 12noon EST.


Do we have a91l ?????


That's from August 8th...
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Re: Percent of Chance For TC Development

#32 Postby hial2 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 5:55 pm

RattleMan wrote:
hial2 wrote:91L on 8-8-06 at 12noon EST.


Do we have a91l ?????


That's from August 8th...


Right...thanks,didn't notice that....
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#33 Postby JonathanBelles » Sat Sep 02, 2006 9:21 pm

what are the chances at this time?
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#34 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:44 am

Invest 93L Eastern Atl. TW.

9-06-06 12noon est


Percent of Chance- 80%
Parameters Met- A, C, D, E, F, G, H


RESULT- Tropical Storm Gordon
Last edited by Dean4Storms on Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#35 Postby Stormavoider » Tue Sep 05, 2006 11:53 am

This seems great! You need to give it a technical sounding name. How about the "D4S Development Index" or the D4SDI for short.
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#36 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 05, 2006 12:02 pm

Stormavoider wrote:This seems great! You need to give it a technical sounding name. How about the "D4S Development Index" or the D4SDI for short.



I like it!!

Thanks :D
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#37 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 12, 2006 7:52 am

Invest 94L Tropical Wave just South of Cape Verde Islands

9-12-06 8:00am est

Percent of Chance- 100%

Parameters Met- A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H (QScat shows closed LL winds)



RESULT- TD #8 to eventual Hurricane Helene
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#38 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Sep 17, 2006 2:23 pm

Invest 95L East of the Carolina's

9-17-06 3:00pm est

Percent of Chance- 40%

Parameters Met- D, E, F, G, H


RESULT- NO DEVELOPMENT
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#39 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Sep 20, 2006 6:16 am

Invest 96L 450 miles SSW of CV Islands


9-20-06 7:00am est


Percent of Chance- 80%


Parameters Met- A, C, D, E, F, G, H
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