Helene Forecast 10...final forecast; ET soon

[ncweatherwizard]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.


From Nencweather.com

Although these forecasts appear statistically reliable always first consult
and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This
forecast is not associated with any other professional or non-professional
source of information except nencweather.com.

Forecast 1:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... eight.html

This could be our first major hurricane of the year, but only if its center gets its act together over the next couple of days. Circulation looks good, but it'll have to consolidate from what was earlier today a wave to a stronger storm. Don't try to extrapolate the forecast beyond five days.

Scott

P.S. My apologies for being late tonight...I work until late tutoring, and I couldn't get the forecast out by 10:30 as I would normally like to. Luckily, the track guidance is tightly clustered tonight.

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 2:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... eight.html

I thought long and hard about this one, but the late part of the forecast is drawing a blank. Slow steady intensification is indicated through the forecast, and there's been a chance like I mentioned (or at least dreamt of mentioning) last night, that we could see westward component in the motion in a few days.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 4:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... elene.html

This has a major hurricane in three days; the storm looks much better today, and only has a little bit of trouble with dry air in the northwest quadrant. Good write-up this afternoon I think, but I'm somewhat unsure about how the track will verify.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 5:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... elene.html

Backed off on the intensity--too much dry air. Track forecast is sketchy, but Helene will definitely turn northward eventually.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 6:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... elene.html

Helene will likely be moving mostly northward between 60W and 65W.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 7:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... elene.html

This looks like it is about to re-intensify. Could be a Category Four with favorable pattern for outflow to the west of the hurricane.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 9:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... elene.html

Could restrengthen some if the outflow pattern is helped from the upper levels--could set up in a day or so before extratropical transition in 2 to 3 days.

Scott

[ncweatherwizard]

Forecast 10:
http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... elene.html

Extratropical soon....yay

Scott