** Will 2007 Hurricane Season Be A Bust Like 2006 Was**

[Lindaloo]

They must have something to talk about on the radio. 610 A.M this morning was interviewing Mark Saunders. The professor that is predicting 17 storms on his latest update. They must be hard up to interview him. Especially this early in the game. I never heard him interveiwed on the radio before and I listen to 610 AM for traffic updates in the morning.

When they predict this do they offer opinions as to why that number is so high? if so, what is it based on?

[CycloneJim]

I don't believe in predictions anymore until the season is upon us. Look what happened in 2006 with the predictions of an active season,need I say more.

The forecasts for an active 2006 were mainly based on was thought to be a developing La-Nina during the spring of last year. During June however the pacific sst's rapidly warmed so the forecast was a bust. What the forecast missed were the subsurface anamolies over the central pacific showed a pronounced warming that was occuring below the cool surface sst's. This year the subsurface is much colder which has been upwelling to the surface in recent weeks which indicates the probable development of a La-Nina or at least the cool side of a neutral episode. Oceanographers do say the March to May period is the difficult prediction period of the year.
Hurricane season of 2005 was probably the type of season you will probably only see once in a hundred years or so. If you hear people in the media this year or any other year that looks like an active one coming up " This year will be worse than 2005" don't believe it , They will just cause the price of gas to go up to over $3 dollars a gallon.

[perk]

I don't believe in predictions anymore until the season is upon us. Look what happened in 2006 with the predictions of an active season,need I say more.

I second that Boca.

[wxmann_91]

I don't believe in predictions anymore until the season is upon us. Look what happened in 2006 with the predictions of an active season,need I say more.

The forecasts for an active 2006 were mainly based on was thought to be a developing La-Nina during the spring of last year. During June however the pacific sst's rapidly warmed so the forecast was a bust. What the forecast missed were the subsurface anamolies over the central pacific showed a pronounced warming that was occuring below the cool surface sst's. This year the subsurface is much colder which has been upwelling to the surface in recent weeks which indicates the probable development of a La-Nina or at least the cool side of a neutral episode. Oceanographers do say the March to May period is the difficult prediction period of the year.
Hurricane season of 2005 was probably the type of season you will probably only see once in a hundred years or so. If you hear people in the media this year or any other year that looks like an active one coming up " This year will be worse than 2005" don't believe it , They will just cause the price of gas to go up to over $3 dollars a gallon.

Welcome to the board Jim!!

After a superactive 2005, a lot of people predicting a superactive 2006. Now after a superquiet 2006, a lot of people are predicting a superquiet 2007. So of course there are going to be doubters.

There are many indications that this could be a very active season. We are in a favorable multidecadal pattern and a La Nina seems to be on tap.

[kba981]

I hope its a quiet season.

[Janie2006]

I'm not quite ready to speculate on this season as of yet. Another season like 2006 is unlikely, IMO. If La Nina develops it would certainly trend toward being a more active season, undoubtedly.

[Downdraft]

I agree with David the thread has gotten a little off topic. I guess you just have to remember that "predictions" are not forecasts. Sometimes we get a little to hung up around here with the difference. If I predict 12 storms with 5 U.S. hits everyone in here with an ounce of intelligence knows I'm using a crystal ball this early in the year. Personally, I take such predictions with a grain of salt and usually with a touch of amusement. I do think it's safe to forecast a busy year based upon historical data La Nina vs. El Nino. I also think conditions such as SST's and the SAL can be used to make a rationale statement. I also think you can make the case that once again the average number of major storms will be higher than we have seen prior to 2004. As for land falls, your GUESS is as good as mine!

For the off topic part of thread homes do not have to be of shoddy construction to be receipes for disaster. We don't see many tobacco road type subdivsions along the Florida coast. What we do see is either million dollar glass and stucco monuments to our own stupidity or acre after acre of cookie cutter houses designed to bring in property tax dollars with little thought to property tax payers. Personally, I'd require the construction of a "safe room" in every single house along the coast line. That assumes of course that everyone inside the room doesn't drown from the storm surge.

All my own humble opinions folks.

[LaPlaceFF]

Look at this topic....Why is the 2006 season is calles a bust? Cause no majors hit the US? IMO the 2006 season was a success. No one got killed, no homes were destroyed. Leave comparing to the meterologists and the experts. People were safe last year.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I really wish we could build homes that were hurricane and tornado proof...but that probably won't happen for several decades. Storms are bad enough, but if we get strong structures we can live in paradise areas without worrying about structural damage from storms. Also, coastal homes should be built on elevated columns or elevated bases of 10-20 feet in hurricane prone coastal areas. This happens on Saint Petersburg and other Florida west coast beaches where homes are elevated 12 feet due to storm surge threats.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

2006 did produce several very strong hurricanes: Gordon and Helene which both reached category 3 strength.

Also Tropical Storm Alberto was nothing to sneeze at. It's outer rainbands ripped two doors out of my balcony at my house and tossed a large rocking chair into a hammock as well as overturning furniture in my outside balcony.

[Downdraft]

Look at this topic....Why is the 2006 season is calles a bust? Cause no majors hit the US? IMO the 2006 season was a success. No one got killed, no homes were destroyed. Leave comparing to the meterologists and the experts. People were safe last year.

I totally agree with you! Florida in 2004 the Gulf Coast in 2005, enough was enough. 2006 was a great season for watching storms without the worry although Alberto gave those of us in Florida a foreboding of what might come and luckily did not. While many will never admit it openly they secretly dream for a major landfalling system and for some reason known only to them they wish it was coming at them. I've still got enough memories of Charley here and what I saw on t.v. after Katrina to last me a lifetime. One thought though don't think just because this is a weather board it doesn't have experts on it. To many times I've seen this board 24 hours ahead of the curve on storms. The NHC and Storm2k are a powerful pair for analysis and information.

[DanKellFla]

A bust? No complaints about last year here. I will gladly join you in the excitement of experiencing a hurricane with you as long as you deal with my insurance company and cover my deductibles. But, if it is predictions that you desire, then I will give a few, and maybe my methodology as well.

#1 Inversely proportional to the amount of effort applied/money spent prepareing for a hurricane. This method requires paranoid narcisim. In other words, I am so important that the world really is out to get me. In that case, after spending about $3K last year on a generator and home improvements there was nothing. This year, I spent less money, but a lot more time and effort preparing for the season. Once again, I fell that my preparations will be for naught. I don't care. I hope I wasted my time in preparing for another hurricane. I even left some stuff for me to do next year, just to keep the trend going. But after that, I will be done.

#2 I rub my belly, face east and ask about next season. The answer I get from the wind (AKA, my lovely wife) is that I am fat and that the wind doesn't care as long as I take care of my responsibilities and she takes care of hers. (She takes care of the three kiddies durring a storm. I man the cordless drill. Her job is harder.)

#3 Ask a British tourist while buying a pint.

#4 Ponder the question for 6 months:
I promise that this method is the best. I will get back to you in about 6 months with my predicitons.

[Bluefrog]

Linda ... what's the connection with the Pascagoula Police Dept? Just curious. As for the topic ..... I hope to God we don't see any storms in 2007...Katrina kicked my butt and still is .......

[MGC]

2006 was an average season. Compared to 2004 and 2005 it was a bust. A welcome bust I must add. El Nino snuck up on us. I doubt we are that lucky in 2007. Looks like a neutral to La Nina season. SST are still warm so I see an above average season. My prelim numbers are 15-7-4.......MGC

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Last season was fantastic! Got a little bit of heavy rain and gusty winds from the outer bands of TS Beryl. Unlike other storms with tropical connections, with Beryl I didn't have to worry about my roof or trees (both were damaged in 2001 by the hybridstorm, and before that by Bob in 1991).

[senorpepr]

Please tell me what kind of code there is that can withstand a surge like Katrina's and Rita's?

Nothing can withstand the water.

However, there are SOME steps to protect against the wind, but even those will not prevent total destruction once you get into the cat 3 and higher wind regimes. Re-enforced concrete should be the standard code on the hurricane coast, IMO, much like in Cayman. And please get rid of glass high rises (MIAMI AND LAUDERDALE, especially)

We have those strict codes, Derek. We do not have any real high rise buildings here, we only had barges with windows. Some of the buildings on the water were reinforced concrete and did not get swept inland, only flooded the lower floors.

Unfortunately, you still see too many homes along the coast made of wood with limited concrete re-enforcement. As Derek mentioned, building codes in places like Cayman as well as other locations in the Caribbean and in the Western Pacific have more strict codes that insist concrete re-enforcement.

I think you just made my point. **shrugs**

No, unless there is a misunderstanding. You said "we have those strict codes," but I'm saying you really don't. Granted, some of the buildings along the coast do, but too many residential homes aren't up to the standards that many hurricane/typhoon prone areas see. As I said, "Unfortunately, you still see too many homes along the coast made of wood with limited (or no) concrete re-enforcement. As Derek mentioned, building codes in places like Cayman as well as other locations in the Caribbean and in the Western Pacific have more strict codes that insist concrete re-enforcement."

The problem, in my opinion, really lies with the costs of supplies. If you go to places in the Caribbean or in the Western Pacific (remotely near the coast), you're going to have a hard time finding any home or building made from wood like you see in the States. Concrete is the way may of these areas go. As a result, you find reduced frequency of the damage that you see in the States.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What really frighten me is all the wooden homes on stilts that you see on Barrier Islands. They usually get destroyed, yet every time a hurricanes hits again they are usually back sometimes even in greater numbers. I don't understand how the building codes allow them to be rebuilt in the same fashion and in the same local again and again.

It reminds me of the Saint John River to the NE of my area. Just about every Spring I see pictures of same ball diamond/rec center underwater and the same nearby houses basements, flooded, even in minor flooding. Yet the government always pays subsidies so that these places can clean up the near annual mess.

[wxmann_91]

Look at this topic....Why is the 2006 season is calles a bust? Cause no majors hit the US? IMO the 2006 season was a success. No one got killed, no homes were destroyed. Leave comparing to the meterologists and the experts. People were safe last year.

It certainly wasn't a "success" to those who predicted 17+ named storms. It was a "bust" because it did not live up to the expectations of the forecasts. In science, the terms "success" and "bust" are comparing predictions to results, with byproducts of the results not factored in.