Cancun Question....

[Yankeegirl]

[font=Verdana]Hi all!! I am going on my honeymoon in July (the 9-14) I am just wondering if I should buy the insurance with it? I dont know what the track record is with hurricanes effecting the Cancun area in July are... ? Just wanted some input before I book my trip!! Thanks in advance!! [/font]

[NDG]

On a typical year, there's not much action in the western Caribbean hurricane strength wise in early to mid july, usually tropical systems are of the weak tropical disturbance to tropical storm strength most of the time. If you were talking about August to October timeframe, then your chances of getting hit by a hurricane strength tropical system down there are much greater. So the most you could have down there will be rain even if it is not by a tropical system, since is their rainy season anyway.

[MiamiensisWx]

Although the greatest seasonal activity usually takes place in August, September, and October, I would bring some insurance coverage on your trip to Mexico to be on the safe side. July hurricane activity has occurred in the Caribbean and Bay of Campeche (and in the Atlantic Basin) during many seasons. Mainland Mexico (and the Yucatan Peninsula) climatologically frequently experiences the effects of tropical storms (and a hurricane strike on some occasions). 2005 featured Dennis and Emily in July, and the latter hurricane struck Mexico twice. In addition, tropical storms that form in the western Caribbean may track northward over the Yucatan Peninsula (see Cindy of 2005 when it was a depression) or brush the tip of the land (see Allison in 1995 and other storms).

Despite the usual lack of development in July, storms that form during this period tend to develop in the western Atlantic Basin. Tropical storms frequently develop in the Caribbean Sea during this month and general tracks may move westward and affect Mexico. 1933 is one good example. A tropical storm affected the Yucatan Peninsula during July 1933. Here are additional examples.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I would be cautious. It is better to be safe (not sorry).

[Yankeegirl]

Thanks for your quick replies!!! I was thinking the same thing... this vacation is costing me 2500. for a week... I would hate to have some stupid storm mess it up!!!

[wxman57]

What does the insurance cost? Odds are low of a significant TC affecting that area in June/July. More likely, you'll see a passing tropical wave that produces some thunderstorms for a day or two of your stay. I'd base my decision on what the insurance costs.

[Yankeegirl]

the insurance cost about 180.00 for both of us... I think its a bit pricey... i dont know!! im torn!!!

[wxman57]

the insurance cost about 180.00 for both of us... I think its a bit pricey... i dont know!! im torn!!!

A realistic probability of that area being directly affected by a significant storm in June/July would likely be under 1%. Pretty low. Not out of the question, but not impossible. If $180 is pocket change to you, then it may be worth the peace of mind. Otherwise, the odds are heavily in your favor that Cancun won't be significantly affected. Now if this is a cruise, then there would be a higher probability that a cruise might have to take a detour regardless of whether Cancun would be directly impacted.

Almost certainly, Cancun will be impacted by a tropical wave about every 4-6 days in June/July in one way or another. Usually, the waves just produce increased clouds and thunderstorms for a few days. But you wouldn't cancel a vacation because of a few days with thunderstorms.

[Opal storm]

A realistic probability of that area being directly affected by a significant storm in June/July would likely be under 1%.

I don't know about that,Emily and Claudette hit down there in July.The NW Carib seems to be a hot spot for development in June/July,that's usually the area we see our first storm of the season.

[Jam151]

A realistic probability of that area being directly affected by a significant storm in June/July would likely be under 1%.

I don't know about that,Emily and Claudette hit down there in July.The NW Carib seems to be a hot spot for development in June/July,that's usually the area we see our first storm of the season.

Yeah but typically we don't get as much early development as we saw in 2003 and especially 2005. The chances of a storm directly impacting the Yucatan during the exact week of the scheduled vacation is even lower.

[Yankeegirl]

well the cost of the insurance isnt pocket change... lol.. i would love to spend the money on something else down there, like swimming with a dolphin or something!! Seriously... all of you guys help is greatly appriciated!!!! Keep it coming!! I think I am going to go to the travel agent tomorrow... !!

[Category 5]

On a typical year, there's not much action in the western Caribbean hurricane strength wise in early to mid july.

Typical meaning NOT 2005

[boca]

If you were to take 2005 out of the equation then spent it on swimming with the dolphins or getting messages or in my case food. Like wxman57 said 1% chance.

[NDG]

On a typical year, there's not much action in the western Caribbean hurricane strength wise in early to mid july.

Typical meaning NOT 2005

Exactly! July 2005 was once in a 50 year event probably, that's why I didn't even mentioned it.

[micktooth]

Your insurance quotes seem a little high. In the past when we needed travel insurance we checked insuremytrip.com. You might want to check it out, I think you can do better.

[Yankeegirl]

thanks!! i will check out that site!!! thanks to all of you!!!

[Janie2006]

LOL. Storm 2K Travel Agency and Wx Bureau at your service.

[Yankeegirl]

I knew i was a member for a reason!!!

[linkerweather]

Insurance can be a good deal. But, you may want to check with your credit card company because some offer travel insurance as part of your CC agreement. Also, if you want to learn how to save big bucks on travel check out my wife's website http://www.yourvacationlinker.com or PM me