Instead of numbers-07 possible landfall locations

[NCHurricane]

I know someone on the NC coast who had his insurance policy cancelled. The company cited "extremely high risk for a devastating hurricane." It classified devastating as Cat 4+. North Carolina has never had a Cat 4 make landfall there.

Insurance companies are getting ridiculous.

Hurricane Hazel - 1954 - the only one. Source

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

[wobblehead]

How can anyone realistically single out a particular region of coastline to be at high risk of being hit. The 5 day forecast is a real stretch and quite frankly I think it irresponsible. Last year was to be the year for the east coast right? Atmospheric conditions changed all that. I do not see any benefit in predictions like this. We all should hope for the best and prepare for the worst.

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well first of all regional probablities for the season or done by Dr. Gray and Joe Bastardi. I saw where Bastardi's focus for this year seemed to be the Fl Penninsula. I really don't go by Bastardi or that matter anyone else. My own probabilities happen to be somwhat further west this year than Bastardi's. Now its true I have gone out on a limb to predict actual landfall points, but I think this is not so far-fetched as it may seem. Once you have an idea what areas may see tropical development and the types of tracks which often occur in given years, then forecasting a point is not so ridiculous. I do have reasons for predicting those precise landfall locales. I would prefer to wait just a little (perhaps beginning of June) to spell out those reasons. Another thing, you may not believe this, but I am a firm believer that hurricane forecasting is as much an art as a science. I'll leave you with this, judging from recent history, do you think my predictions of landfall at one or both of these locations NEW IBERIA, LA. OR PASCAGOULA MISS is really all that far-fetched ?

[wobblehead]

I think overall climatology would lend itself to more accuracy than recent history.
That being said if the entire U.S. coastline were divided into 10 mile increments which of our coastal states would have the greatest number of hits per increment? #1Ms, #2 Al.
So, no, New Iberia and Pascagoula are not that far fetched. It does seem that track tendancies swing every few years say from east coast, to central gulf, to western gulf.

[deltadog03]

FL

[Swimdude]

Oh, this is complete silliness. We all know and understand quite well that most of this is meaningless wishing, lacking almost any actual research. Let's be honest. A storm can hit anywhere from Mexico to Maine. In fact, several probably will. Hopefully we'll have a nice, peaceful season like last year.

[Regit]

I know someone on the NC coast who had his insurance policy cancelled. The company cited "extremely high risk for a devastating hurricane." It classified devastating as Cat 4+. North Carolina has never had a Cat 4 make landfall there.

Insurance companies are getting ridiculous.

Hurricane Hazel - 1954 - the only one. Source

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

While Hazel was a 4 in NC (though who knows if anywhere in NC truly experienced Cat 4 conditions), it made landfall at Little River, SOUTH Carolina.

Source: NOAA (Zoom in to see the landfall spot)

Anyway, NC has never had a Cat 4 make landfall there.

[Berwick Bay]

Oh, this is complete silliness. We all know and understand quite well that most of this is meaningless wishing, lacking almost any actual research. Let's be honest. A storm can hit anywhere from Mexico to Maine. In fact, several probably will. Hopefully we'll have a nice, peaceful season like last year.

I know exactly well what you are saying. I'm pretty well informed in regard to what the science of hurricane forecasting can do. But remember, I did say that this is not all based on science. I admit it. I even proclaim it. Its what I mean when I talk about the ART of hurricane forecasting as opposed to the science of it.