WXRisk's Summer Forecast

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW...it's these kinds of forecasts that tend to mislead the average person. The average Texas resident who knows little about weather would see this and assume that there is no risk to their area this year. That is not really the mindset people should be in. EVERYONE needs to be prepared for anything. IMO, trying to give exact hurricane tracks this early on is a little crazy...instead I think focusing on the overall risk compared to normal in a percentage basis (similar to Dr. Gray's forecast) is a better way to go. Using that method, people do not get quite the same false sense of being "safe" and hopefully will be better prepared for the season ahead.

How many people that aren't exactly weather enthusiasts do you think are visting sites such as wxrisk.com? Also, people are skeptical about CSU and NOAA's number as it is. I highly doubt somebody is gonna read something off the internet in May/June and forget about the hurricane season just because no TX landfalls are expected..

Well let's hope that's the case, but then again not everyone is so bright now days. There are plenty out there that still tend to write off hurricanes and their local threat even after recent years...especially those who do not follow weather and have never been in a hurricane.

In the end though, you are probably right. The average person would likely never stumble upon wxrisk.com, and this would not even be an issue.

[ROCK]

Boy, if this forecast is not the kiss of death I do not know what is....I almost want Jim C to come do a story in Galveston just to ward off this bad karma......

I agree with your points EWG. The group should have put out percentages rather than get specific. Their forecast oozes with a non-chalantness attitude that many (like you said) will rely on.

One thing I noticed after READING the whole write-up (yes I read it all Strat747), this group seems pretty confident with their forecast. Almost to the point of being cocky, IMO. Personally, I never take these forecasts to heart. There is no way for certain to tell where a TS is going until it forms. Period. Yes you can look at the current set-up NOW but never will you know what the SET-UP is tomorrow let alone three months from now.

You probably have a better chance at winning the lottery.....JMHO

[Stratosphere747]

Boy, if this forecast is not the kiss of death I do not know what is....I almost want Jim C to come do a story in Galveston just to ward off this bad karma......

I agree with your points EWG. The group should have put out percentages rather than get specific. Their forecast oozes with a non-chalantness attitude that many (like you said) will rely on.

One thing I noticed after READING the whole write-up (yes I read it all Strat747), this group seems pretty confident with their forecast. Almost to the point of being cocky, IMO. Personally, I never take these forecasts to heart. There is no way for certain to tell where a TS is going until it forms. Period. Yes you can look at the current set-up NOW but never will you know what the SET-UP is tomorrow let alone three months from now.

You probably have a better chance at winning the lottery.....JMHO

Well hats off to you Rock for reading the entire article... No doubt by far the majority that read this thread will interpret the forecast based on the illustration alone.

I'm fairly certain that this individual is writing his forecast for the energy sector and not the everyday person, so it's essential in their line of work to the best of their ability to give out a future forecast. If anyone on the coast from Corpus to Galveston were to take this to mean we are safe this year, it's only due to their own ignorance. I feel somewhat confident that most of us Texans are a little brighter than what is being implied…;)

Hopefully those that are safe in certain areas will refrain from evacuating this year so those of us that really do need to leave will have the ability to do so.

Just in case DT is wrong.....

[Steve]

I've battled back and forth over the years with DT, Dericho and a bunch of other people I otherwise respect their opinions. I personally think DT has it together more than he doesn't. Wait and see if what he's got verifies and we can grade it later. The last year I did the grading on the landfall and seasonal forecasts was 2004 (I thought it was pretty good anyway). I wonder if the independent dudes at independentwx have put out their forecast yet. I'm going to see if they're still running their site, and if so, whether or not they've issued their 2007 landfall and storm risk.

Steve

[Steve]

http://www.independentwx.com/2007

Looks like they have. Jason, Robb and Kevin are 3 of my favorite posters on any of the fan sites. They've hit and missed on some stuff over the years, but I always appreciate their work. I haven't read this one yet, so it should be interesting to see what they're looking at this season.

Steve

[Steve]

Wow. Independent shows no landfalls in 2007 for the US and A. Barry... I gotta disagree with them there, but I'm always interested in the work they do.

Steve

[Opal storm]

http://www.independentwx.com/2007

Looks like they have. Jason, Robb and Kevin are 3 of my favorite posters on any of the fan sites. They've hit and missed on some stuff over the years, but I always appreciate their work. I haven't read this one yet, so it should be interesting to see what they're looking at this season.

Steve

No tropical cyclone landfalls are expected along the United States mainland.

Wow, now that's a BOLD prediction. I skimmed to the Landfall Activity By Coastal Areas section, haven't read the rest though.

[skysummit]

http://www.independentwx.com/2007

Looks like they have. Jason, Robb and Kevin are 3 of my favorite posters on any of the fan sites. They've hit and missed on some stuff over the years, but I always appreciate their work. I haven't read this one yet, so it should be interesting to see what they're looking at this season.

Steve

No tropical cyclone landfalls are expected along the United States mainland.

Wow, now that's a BOLD prediction. I skimmed to the Landfall Activity By Coastal Areas section, haven't read the rest though.

LOL, well it's already wrong with Barry making landfall in Florida.

[Jam151]

They did respond to certain issues following the release.

Finally, verificational expectations should be made clear. First of all, calling for no US landfalls is an extremely bold forecast. There simply wasn't enough supporting evidence that any particular area was at risk. With that said, it would not be surprising if a minor tropical cyclone, for example Marco of 1990, were to ruin some preseason ideas. Minor imperfections following a seasonal forecast should always be anticipated. One must be realistic. If the USA escapes the wrath of '07 with only 1-2 minimal tropical storm landfalls, whereas the northeast Caribbean and Yucatan are hard hit, then it would be safe to say the 2007 outlook was one hell of a forecast.

http://www.independentwx.com/rebuttal

[vbhoutex]

I respect DT's weather knowledge and abilities to say the very least. But, I do not understand why he thinks that ridge set up will protect the Central and Upper TX coasts. Any deviation E or W of either one would tend to open up that area, I would think, and we know there will be deviations. And like stated above, he expects storms to just plow through the ridge over the SE? I need further explanation. AND NO I DO NOT WANT ANY STORMS here in SE TX. I have had enough TS"s and Hurricanes in my life to last a few lifetimes.

[Jam151]

I respect DT's weather knowledge and abilities to say the very least. But, I do not understand why he thinks that ridge set up will protect the Central and Upper TX coasts. Any deviation E or W of either one would tend to open up that area, I would think, and we know there will be deviations. And like stated above, he expects storms to just plow through the ridge over the SE? I need further explanation. AND NO I DO NOT WANT ANY STORMS here in SE TX. I have had enough TS"s and Hurricanes in my life to last a few lifetimes.

I'm confused as well. I hope he's right though.

[MGC]

Ridge placement is the key to landfall area in the GOM. Weak Bermuda ridge is usually associated with a EC trough, recurving storms up the EC and out to sea. A stronger ridge (like current setup) will push storm into the GOM. Their forecast makes sense to me. West Africa has had above average rainfall which should lesses the extent of SAL outbreaks. The potential is there for some long track CV storm if their forecast pans out. Ridge placement this July/Aug/Sept will be the key......MGC

[MiamiensisWx]

I respect DT's weather knowledge and abilities to say the very least. But, I do not understand why he thinks that ridge set up will protect the Central and Upper TX coasts. Any deviation E or W of either one would tend to open up that area, I would think, and we know there will be deviations. And like stated above, he expects storms to just plow through the ridge over the SE? I need further explanation. AND NO I DO NOT WANT ANY STORMS here in SE TX. I have had enough TS"s and Hurricanes in my life to last a few lifetimes.

I believe that you answered your own question. The paths are general probable tracks under the prognosticated pattern. They are not specific individual paths of a particular storm. They only indicate some possible movements. It does not show all possible paths; it merely indicates some general tracks in the forecast pattern trend. Deviations of the ridge could allow paths into Texas, peninsular Florida, or other regions. DT is not stating that a particular region would not receive storms; he largely takes a data-based guess on general tracks. He outlines some regions that may receive a greater risk than other areas.

At the same time, I must agree with those who believe that timing is the key. The interaction of troughs and ridges during a storm's existance makes the most difference with respect to its eventual path. Everyone must be prepared. I just wanted to clarify some misconceptions of DT's analysis.