The 2007 Indian Monsoon

[philnyc]

The southwest monsoon is almost completely in place now, and ahead of schedule

I still believe it would have been much more ahead of schedule if not for Gonu. Here's the MSLP and mean vector winds for June so far, annotated (white or red lines) to show the position of the monsoon trough so far during June.




This configuration is much like last year's at this time. If it stays that way, there may be, like last year, an unusually high number of depressions and strong depressions, and probably a few more tropical cyclones, due to the southeastern part of the trough lying over the northern BOB, which is again experiencing above normal SSTs:



The IMD, by the way, is forecasting a new low to develop there around July 5th. See the last sentence on this great link to the IMD:

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/SPLNEW.HTM

[terstorm1012]

good info and links. Although I thought Gonu made the monsoon late? Anyway, thanks for the education

[Aslkahuna]

The monsoon trough is supposed to be overland in July and August with the climatological mean occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea being Zero for both months. Also, indications are that the monsoon has not yet established itself over the Philippines which is late.

Steve

[wjs3]

Phil:

there's a question about Monsoon troughs over in the "Question" forum...if you have a chance, you might be able to help.

WJS3

[philnyc]

The monsoon trough is supposed to be overland in July and August with the climatological mean occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea being Zero for both months. Also, indications are that the monsoon has not yet established itself over the Philippines which is late.

Steve

Hi Steve,
Thanks for noting that about the normals. You are, of course, 100% correct about the July August trough position. Here's a short version of a paper I did last year on the 2006 monsoon season at India. It will make it more clear as to what I was saying in that first post:
http://www.personal.psu.edu/users/p/z/p ... ONSOON.htm

I wasn't specifically talking about July and August in my original post, but rather the season from here to October, when I was talking about expecting a higher than normal number of depressions and cyclones. However, as you can see from that page I wrote, I do expect to see more depressions than normal, some possibly quite strong, and even during July and August this summer, IF the monsoon trough remains oriented as it has been so far.
Cheers.
Phil

P.S. I also noticed that the monsoon trough is late in the Philipines. But I don't know why, since I haven't done any analysis on it, and I'm much more familiar with the Indian monsoon. You are the maestro on the Philipines and SE Asia! If you had any thoughts on why it's late there, I'd love to hear them.

[philnyc]

Phil:

there's a question about Monsoon troughs over in the "Question" forum...if you have a chance, you might be able to help.

WJS3

Thanks, Winn. I'll try to get to it after dinner.

[philnyc]

good info and links. Although I thought Gonu made the monsoon late? Anyway, thanks for the education

You're quite welcome, and thank you. Here's something I wrote a few weeks ago about Gonu and the onset of this year's monsoon. I posted something about it here before, but this page I just completed is much better, I think.

http://www.personal.psu.edu/users/p/z/p ... VORTEX.htm

[wjs3]

Anyone who has a chance should read Phil's links. It's stuff he wrote for some classes he and I took and he does great work.

Phil--sorry--brief hijack--notice that you posted on 04b--did you see the other thread on it?

WJS3

[wxmann_91]

First of all, welcome to the board, Phil.

When I saw the page that you provided to us, regarding the advancement of this year's monsoonal trough, I immediately recognized the format.

This link was provided to me a few months ago: http://www.personal.psu.edu/pzl112/Mete ... JECT_3.htm

All I can say is, great work! Are you a professor at PSU?

[philnyc]

Hey wxmann_91,
Thanks for the comments and compliments. I'm not a professor at PSU - I wish I was! But I graduated from their certification program and I've been into weather for a long time. It's a great program; they teach you to be VERY careful about your science, and back up everything you say with solid proof from the data and/or the records.
I'm really enjoying this site - there are a lot of really good people on here who follow the good science principal. We can all learn a lot from each other here, and I hope to contribute. Keep up the high standards, and I hope to see you around here a lot.

P.S. What's your name? wxmann_91 is too much to type; I'm lazy too!

[wxmann_91]

Hey wxmann_91,
Thanks for the comments and compliments. I'm not a professor at PSU - I wish I was! But I graduated from their certification program and I've been into weather for a long time. It's a great program; they teach you to be VERY careful about your science, and back up everything you say with solid proof from the data and/or the records.
I'm really enjoying this site - there are a lot of really good people on here who follow the good science principal. We can all learn a lot from each other here, and I hope to contribute. Keep up the high standards, and I hope to see you around here a lot.

P.S. What's your name? wxmann_91 is too much to type; I'm lazy too!

Phil,
You can call me Jim.

[philnyc]

OK, Jim. BTW, keep an eye on 04B. Seems to be a regeneration chance there.

[philnyc]

Anyone who has a chance should read Phil's links. It's stuff he wrote for some classes he and I took and he does great work.

Phil--sorry--brief hijack--notice that you posted on 04b--did you see the other thread on it?

WJS3

Thanks, Winn. I found it and moved my post. I don't know how to delete a thread or I'd get rid of the superfluous one I added.

[philnyc]

Oh, BTW, Jim, I updated my profile for all of you guys. And Winn (wjs3) is a fellow graduate of mine. He is a whip, especially on the tropics, so watch his posts as well.
Phil

[wjs3]

Phil:

I gave Jim that link when he asked a question about that outbreak over in the "got a question" forum (viewtopic.php?f=42&t=93474). That's how he got it. I like to show stuff off from the program any chance I get and that was too good to pass up. I've linked to a couple of pages from my e-portfolios now and then too when the context was right.

And thanks for your kind words, but I'm just one of many very capable and talented people re: the tropics on this board!

WJS3

[wxmann_91]

Oh, BTW, Jim, I updated my profile for all of you guys. And Winn (wjs3) is a fellow graduate of mine. He is a whip, especially on the tropics, so watch his posts as well.
Phil

Thanks. From my conversations with Winn/wjs3, and observations of his posts, I would agree that he knows a lot about the tropics.

[Aslkahuna]

The late start to the monsoon in the Philippines is related to the fact that it's a post Niño season. During such years the Large oceanic subtropical High stays south and stronger than usual until late in the season. The stronger trades along with the failure of the High to move north on schedule prevents the eastward progression of the monsoon trough into the Pacific east of the Philippines. In fact, what can happen is that the monsoon flow in the SCS can merge with the flow around the STH and send a strong monsoon flow north through China into Japan and Korea bypassing the Philippines.

Steve

[philnyc]

The late start to the monsoon in the Philippines is related to the fact that it's a post Niño season. During such years the Large oceanic subtropical High stays south and stronger than usual until late in the season. The stronger trades along with the failure of the High to move north on schedule prevents the eastward progression of the monsoon trough into the Pacific east of the Philippines. In fact, what can happen is that the monsoon flow in the SCS can merge with the flow around the STH and send a strong monsoon flow north through China into Japan and Korea bypassing the Philippines.

Steve

Thanks for that Steve. That makes complete sense to me.