Tropical wave in Atlantic,East of islands,the next invest?

[Normandy]

^Thats why im trying to stop, no need to discuss old news in a new thread.

[wxman57]

The title of this thread is incorrect, should be 30W-35W. I've been following that wave for the past 3-4 days. Convection continues to diminish as it moves westward. Doesn't look like it has much of a chance to develop. It's very far south and should be moving into the coast of South America around next Wednesday or Thursday. Looks fairly quiet across the tropics for the next few weeks. Wave activity has diminished in amplitude for now.

[cycloneye]

581
AXNT20 KNHC 072346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 15N32W TO 5N36W MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AND IS CAUSING A LARGE POLEWARD
PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ. DESPITE ITS LARGE SIZE...SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL AND DISORGANIZED.



http://67.18.196.150/wx/modules.php?nam ... ge&pid=109

Above is the 8 PM EDT discussion of this wave by TPC.

[Cyclone1]

All it need its convection.

[windstorm99]

The title of this thread is incorrect, should be 30W-35W. I've been following that wave for the past 3-4 days. Convection continues to diminish as it moves westward. Doesn't look like it has much of a chance to develop. It's very far south and should be moving into the coast of South America around next Wednesday or Thursday. Looks fairly quiet across the tropics for the next few weeks. Wave activity has diminished in amplitude for now.

I have to agree with those thoughts wxman57 as the next few weeks should be on the quite side until the favorable MJO moves into the atlantic.I suspect activity will pick up towards end of this month which is quite normal as things usually ramp up during august,september and october.Adrian

[skysummit]

I also agree Adrian. Things look pretty calm across the basin, and the wave train has almost calm to a halt for now. I'll take it for now, but it may be the kiss of death in about a month.

[cycloneye]

AXNT20 KNHC 081805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1730 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 2N-14N MOVING W NEAR 15
KT. THIS WAVE WAS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY W OF WHERE CONTINUITY
WOULD HAVE TAKEN IT...BASED ON THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING NOTED FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 37W-43W...AND THE SURGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 39W-45W. DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL THOUGH. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP
FURTHER W ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 49W-57W AS DISCUSSED BELOW.
BASED ON SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF 51W WHICH WILL BE
REEVALUATED FOR THE 1800 UTC MAP.


The 2 PM Discussion from TPC.To answer the author of this thread question,I dont see this being the Atlantic's next invest unless it starts to organize and form a surface low.

[O Town]

Wave is looking good this morning, but I have a feeling the further west it goes, shear is going to eat it up.

[N2FSU]

Nice flare up of convection this morning. Let's see if it persists.

[Berwick Bay]

Have to agree, nice looking convection this morning ESE of the Windwards. Just a quick glance would seem to show that moisture levels in the vicinity have improved since last week's ill-fated 96L dried up on the tree. Shear conditions would seem to be better too, but maybe someone else could quantify that with hard facts. At least its something to watch.

[miamicanes177]

What about the area off the NC/SC coast? It looks nice this morning.

[Berwick Bay]

Well, gonna' answer my own inquiry about shear. From WV Loop, which I just looked at, it still appears pretty hostile out there. Still looks like we're just going to have to wait. Especially in regard to these systems coming out of the Atlantic and approaching the Carribean. Pretty strong westerly flow at the upper levels in the Carribean right now. Here's the WV Loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov./goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[storms in NC]

What about the area off the NC/SC coast? It looks nice this morning.

Just T-storm.Our humidity around here is like 100%. has been for about 5 days now with no end in site.

[boca]

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CURRENTLY SEEING CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
TODAY AS AN UPPER VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 IN. KEPT POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT
RANGE NEAR THE COAST TO 30 PERCENT WELL INLAND. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH MOST AREAS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SEEING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT
INDICIES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND MUGGY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH INCREASED STABILITY AS VORT MAX
MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS FOR COASTAL AREA
TONIGHT...THEN SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WED AND WED NIGHT.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON THU HELPING TO
INCREASE DYNAMICS FOR SCT TSTM DVPLMNT. EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
SUMMER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WED WITH HEAT INDICIES AGAIN
APPROACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS. SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THU.

Looks impressive but its supposed to move out tonight, but it still might become an invest. Sorry wrong thread.

[boca]

I wonder if the wave at 26W and 8N is the wave that will affect Puerto Rico on Sunday time frame.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

THE LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...
SUGGESTS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH..AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEREFORE BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. /RAM

[southerngreen]

this view shows that there might be some potential for it to last a few days. there is a little moisture out there and possibly a little less shear.

http://www.accuweather.com/hurricane/sa ... egion=HATL

[punkyg]

I don't know if you can see it, but tell me what you think?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

looks like the convection is dying so sad.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg