Today's WV Loop

[Frank2]

I thought it best to post this separately from other threads, since it's just an overall overview (double entendre intended) of the current tropical activity:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

first, it's interesting to note that convection with Dean has waned in the past several hours (diurnal, perhaps), but, it seems marginal as a TS at this time...

next, the Gulf system is about to be impinge(d) by some fast-moving northerlies that are behind the frontal trough east of Florida at this time (note the very fast-moving cloud streak currently over South Carolina), so, hopefully this'll have some significant impact on any future development.

Frank

[Frank2]

I just happened to look at the Gulf VIS Loop, and, noticed that the LLC is moving due west (northwest of Merida), so, apparently what appears the most impressive (at least earlier) was the MLC northeast of the LLC...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

so, perhaps any sudden intensification is not as likely, based on what is seen at this time...

P.S. Please read the S2K disclaimer at the top of the forum page...

[Steve Cosby]

I just happened to look at the Gulf VIS Loop, and, noticed that the LLC is moving due west (northwest of Merida), so, apparently what appears the most impressive (at least earlier) was the MLC northeast of the LLC.

Could the MLC get down to the surface in that location? It does look quite impressive at this late hour.

[Frank2]

Well, at least the NHC mentioned the same (MLC) issue last evening, so, glad I wasn't totally wrong...

By the way, per the large trough (sharp for this time of year) currently east of or over Florida and the Bahamas, me thinks that the road before Dean isn't as favorable as previously thought:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

the trough was mentioned in the TCD this morning (the forecaster didn't seem very sure of the outcome), so, we'll see what happens...

[Sanibel]

Frank2:

Not much conversation in here about what is THE most important feature affecting Dean right now. Either GFS or me is totally wrong but that looks like a trough to me. Thanks for seeing it, I thought I was going crazy.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Frank2]

I agree - it's even clearing Cuba as I type this...

In fact, the TCD did comment on this in a dramatic way, mentioning "...the fate of the storm..." when speaking about the trough, so, the forecaster apparently agrees that the trough is (or could be) a very significant factor...

One other thing - if this very large trough does form into a cutoff low (per the TCD), then, it's likely to be a very large ULL, so, a small (peanut) system like Dean might very well be affected by this...

We'll see...

P.S. I found that our old TWC message board friend Rashid had a good idea in cases like this - he said that he wouldn't post or even read the posts during these times, since everyone is often posting all over the board (literally and otherwise), so, he would often wait until the system had passed to rejoin the community...

[Sanibel]

I wonder what finally made them discontinue TWC tropical board? I miss that place as a safe place for novices. (But not the knuckleheads) Sort of like a private board.

[Sanibel]

I still see a remnant trough feature by the Antilles on WV. Others say it is at TUTT level so therefore won't affect the storm, but I have to see that. If Dean pulls a little north of track past the islands you'll know why.

One thing is pretty sure, this won't affect Florida. You can also see the SE US High setting up in the WV loop.

[Frank2]

Thanks for that information - it's been a very busy day here (not weather related), and, I've not been able to check things as often as I'd like to...

That ULL is cosmic-looking - perhaps that'll do something to Dean (other than what was mentioned in the TCD)...

We'll see what happens - did I mention that I want to move to Kansas...

P.S. Oops - per your earlier question - a commerical webmaster told me that many popular web sites are removing their message boards due to liability (slander) issues. As we know, the TWC board often had problems with folks saying some very unkind things about their OCM's - it'd be similar to someone visiting a restaurant and complaining out loud about the chef...

Personally, I thought some of the comments were very unfair and hurtful (commenting on a person's physical appearance, etc.), and, sometimes were very misleading, often saying that this or that OCM had been fired or quit (which usually wasn't the case, similar to the recent comment (just before the message board deletion) concerning two OCM's who had quit - but are still very much there).

In the end, TWC stated the deletion was due to web site upgrades, but, I haven't noticed any changes over the past two months - other than the deletion, so...

[Frank2]

Looking at this loop, it appears the environment will not be nearly as favorable once Dean moves west of 65W ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[AL Chili Pepper]

The conditions in the western Caribbean are not ideal at the present time, but the ULL to the east of FL is forecast to be dislodged by the building ridge to the north of Dean, creating favorable conditions for continued intensification. Long range synoptic forecasting is far from perfect though. In fact, I'd be surprised if there aren't any unforeseen flies in the ointment over the next week, which makes "hurricane watching" so interesting. West runners happen, but the last few years have taught me that it'll happen when it happens.

[Sanibel]

WV synoptic shows Florida ULL regressing west along with expanding Atlantic ridge Dean is currently under. GFS accurate so far. Expect close to forecasted track movement and better likelihood Dean is picked up under US ridge. Jamaica should be in dread mode on this right now.

Wild card: Category 5 Dean in western Caribbean defies synoptic and turns more NW towards west GOM (Let's be frank here - Texas)...

Dean now looking mean with possible trochoidal wobbles. (Going for it)

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

is erin (remnants) causing the northeast front to dig deeper or further west?

do you see potential for any unforseen changes from the NE front to keep the ULL from progressing much further westward

[Sanibel]

What you are seeing "dig" there is the strong gyre around the High GFS is taking Dean on a low-track with.

I'll stick with GFS up to Cayman and category 4. After that I'll be consulting GFDL and instinct.

(Ooo boy, if you wanted a storm you got it with this one)

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with you Sanibel, Dean is trapped under this ridge for now, but that ridge may get held up by that ULL once Dean gets to the Gulf, lookout Texas or possibly even western LA coasts.

[Brent]

Looking at this loop, it appears the environment will not be nearly as favorable once Dean moves west of 65W ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Well it apparently is now...

[hurricanefloyd5]

I started to see the wnw movement around the 8 am adv on the water vapor so i am sure the water vapor will show that Mean Dean is headed for Jamaca but im sure it will pass just to the north of ther and just south of cuba!!!!!!!!

[Sanibel]

The Caribbean WV loop shows Dean's western outflow edge flattening in contact with the ULL border.

[Robjohn53]

I started to see the wnw movement around the 8 am adv on the water vapor so i am sure the water vapor will show that Mean Dean is headed for Jamaca but im sure it will pass just to the north of ther and just south of cuba!!!!!!!!

I saw this as well and wondered if it might do that as well pluss it looks like it's gonna run into somthing else just ahead of it. That thing was on the east side of Florida now it's out in the gulf. Wonder if it dose converge if it will change it's path.

Robjohn53