Fox News Editorial/Opinion on Government Forecasting

[MGC]

The marketplace will determine if NWS forecasts or private companies forecasts will be the primary tool the public uses to obtain its weather information. If you want to pay for a private company to provide your weather information than more power to you. This argument that the private sector can outpreform the government sector at a cheaper cost has been going on for as long as I can remember. This opinion is from just another shill that likely has a financial interest in a private met company....MGC

[LarryWx]

What they don't say is that JB had changed to the following track just a few hours earlier (as of noon that Friday) with Katrina going ashore in the FL panhandle (bolded) and moving to east of NJ about 75 miles (bolded):

From Accuwx.com as of NOON Fri.:

"Sat.: 26.2/82.5
Sun.: 28/84
Mon.: 30.0/85.5
Tues.: 33.5/ 82.0
Wed.: 37.5/78.0
Thu.: 40.0/73.0"

Now, I'll compare that to the 11:30 AM Friday NHC forecast, available at the following, also calling for a FL panhandle hit but further west in the panhandle than Accuwx (bolded), remaining on a further west track than Accuwx, and reaching southcentral PA about 300 miles west of Accuwx at that latitude (bolded)!:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/a...iscus.013.shtml?

HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1530Z 25.1N 82.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 105 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 110 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT

So, the NHC actually did a good bit better than Accuwx as of the midday FRI forecasts.

Then, at 4 PM, JB suddenly decided to move the track's most westward point to 89.5 W in an emergency post. At 5 PM, the NHC also moved it westward, but only to 88.5 W. Then, at 11 PM, the NHC was also at 89.5W.

So, Accuwx did, indeed, beat the NHC to a N.O. hit projection but by only seven hours as opposed to the 12 hours claimed by the article in the following:

"In fact, AccuWeather issued a forecast that the hurricane would hit New Orleans 12 hours earlier than the government service."

[x-y-no]

So, Accuwx did, indeed, beat the NHC to a N.O. hit projection but by only seven hours as opposed to the 12 hours claimed by the article in the following:

"In fact, AccuWeather issued a forecast that the hurricane would hit New Orleans 12 hours earlier than the government service."

True. I'd also note that New Orleans was in the 5-day cone as early as the Tuesday Aug. 23 advisory and was only (barely) outside the cone in three advisories: 11am, 5pm and 11pm on Thursday Aug 25. See the Katrina graphics archive.

[Wthrman13]

What they don't say is that JB had changed to the following track just a few hours earlier (as of noon that Friday) with Katrina going ashore in the FL panhandle (bolded) and moving to east of NJ about 75 miles (bolded):

From Accuwx.com as of NOON Fri.:

"Sat.: 26.2/82.5
Sun.: 28/84
Mon.: 30.0/85.5
Tues.: 33.5/ 82.0
Wed.: 37.5/78.0
Thu.: 40.0/73.0"

Now, I'll compare that to the 11:30 AM Friday NHC forecast, available at the following, also calling for a FL panhandle hit but further west in the panhandle than Accuwx (bolded), remaining on a further west track than Accuwx, and reaching southcentral PA about 300 miles west of Accuwx at that latitude (bolded)!:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/dis/a...iscus.013.shtml?

HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1530Z 25.1N 82.2W 85 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 95 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 100 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 105 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 110 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT

So, the NHC actually did a good bit better than Accuwx as of the midday FRI forecasts.

Then, at 4 PM, JB suddenly decided to move the track's most westward point to 89.5 W in an emergency post. At 5 PM, the NHC also moved it westward, but only to 88.5 W. Then, at 11 PM, the NHC was also at 89.5W.

So, Accuwx did, indeed, beat the NHC to a N.O. hit projection but by only seven hours as opposed to the 12 hours claimed by the article in the following:

"In fact, AccuWeather issued a forecast that the hurricane would hit New Orleans 12 hours earlier than the government service."

The exception that proves the rule. The fact that the author cited this one particular forecast and completely ignored all the other forecasts of Katrina in which the NHC was more accurate only serves to underscore the point of how misleading the article really is.

[caribepr]

On a side note of interest (at least to ME!) - I read the article and emailed Mr. Lott my opinon(s), taken paragraph by paragraph...and it came back, because, according to the non-delivery note, he has never completed the sign up for the email address he provides on his own web page (http://www.johnlott.com).
I find that...odd, and almost perfect, given his slant on *things for free* - perhaps he has an email one must pay for to send? Crazy internet!

[Aslkahuna]

CNN has joined the chorus so to speak by bringing the QuikScat squabble up again and painting Proenza as a scapegoat fired for being a Whistleblower. Thiswas a John Zarrella report on Anderson Pooper (er, Cooper). The Ghost of Christmas Past has come back to haunt NOAA and NWS as I thought it would. NHC did great on Dean,there's no doubt, but the fallout from the earlier squabble is simply that they have to do great on ALL of the storms this season and not get trumped by anyone (including the storms) and especially a certain company in Pennsylvania at anytime. I also noted with interest that last night Nightline chose to discuss Hurricane Dean with Max Mayfield rather than the current (acting) NHC Director as has been the case in the past. My view on this (and I am putting on my flak jacket) is that to the media NOAA, NWS and especially NHC is on probation with them because of what happened earlier.

Steve

[weatherwindow]

There should a class enforced in middle school or high school that provides the students with knowledge about the environmental threats in their area.

For example: If you live in a state like Florida, you should learn about hurricanes, floods, tornadoes, lightning, brush fires, drought, heat waves, rip currents, and more.

If you live in California, you should learn about earthquakes, floods, landslides, heat waves, rip currents, and more.

What I'm trying to say? Have the school boards enforce a class in a certain grade that will inform the students the threats they face in the region they live.

In this way we make people more conscious of what is around them. Then later when they are faced with this kind of problems, they know what to do.

sandy, i think that is an idea we should get behind....an age/grade appropriate segment could be included in, say, the natural science curriculum. this should be modified for grade level and taught in both grade and secondary schools....a little knowledge would go a long way particularly in peoples' response to emerg mgmt initiatives such as evacuation and sheltering orders.....excellent suggestion, sandy

[Emmett_Brown]

I think that the NHC should be a part of Homeland Security instead of NOAA... their job is the most important in weather.

[Category 5]

When I saw Fixed News in the URL I was immediately not suprised at the lack of professionalism and inaccurate, irresponsible writing.

It was good for a laugh, considering Fixed News can't get the SS scale right, not even the mets.

Making up fake news again, what a shock.

[hiflyer]

This was probably a piece pushed by accuweather(since they lost Rick S)....thru the U of Md prof and then to Faux news and is inline with the mantra to privatize and profit anything and everything....hopefully we will stay status quo till Jan 2009 when the admin change will probably reduce pressure on this idea.

[Frank2]

Re: Emmett_Brown's post

That's an interesting idea Doc, but, I don't think the other DOC (as in the U.S. Department of Commerce) would not be very willing to let go of such a prestigious institution...

I also noted with interest that last night Nightline chose to discuss Hurricane Dean with Max Mayfield rather than the current (Acting) NHC Director as has been the case in the past.

Perhaps it's due to the fact that Max is now on the ABC payroll, at least on the local level...

Dr. Bob Sheets used to be the on-air color commentator for the late Peter Jennings, anytime an expert opinion was needed on World News Tonight - I'm not sure if Charles Gibson still asks for Bob's presence during this time of year...

Per what you mentioned, from my own experience, the Nightline crew has been a long-standing visitor to the NHC (they always used to remember us on New Year's Eve with the delivery of a very nice deli platter), so, between Good Morning America, World News Tonight and Nightline, ABC was always a welcome media visitor to the NHC of the 1980's and early 1990's, and, it seems to still be true today.

Frank

P.S. Incidentially, I just checked, and, the vacancy annoucement for the Director's position has not yet been issued...

P.P.S. It seems that AW needs to "cease and desist" from further "bashing" of a Government agency (in this case, the National Hurricane Center) - apparently the time has come for someone (as in a Congressman) to legally step up and tell this small company that it's time for them - unless they have something constructive to add - to stop their ongoing public litany of sour grapes, since this only creates public confusion and distrust of an institution, that, on the whole, does a fine job of keeping the public informed of any threat from a tropical storm or hurricane...

[PhillyWX]

Now that Rick Santorum isn't around to help AW's cause there needs to be someone else to carry their water. John Lott must have been their guy!