THE BERMUDA HIGH???

[Toni - 574]

After looking at the model runs this AM, how fast the high moves is going to be a big factor of where this thing goes. My thinking is that it may not move fast enough to push the system to far West. I have to say at this point I am going to go with a New Orleans to Fla. Big Bend landfall at least at this point in time.

The CMC, NOGAPS and the GFS are starting to come into agreement with a N.Fla. landfall. Even the AVN hints at N.fla. and then looks like it wants to hold back maybe some type of energy and the take it into TEXAS around the 48-78 hr. time frame. Now, this is what I think is an intersting point this morning, the GFS that has been consistant with a Fla. landfall for days now is also now hinting at a piece of energy possibly held back and then around the 54 hr taking this into the Texas/ LOUISIANA area.
This is just my personal thoughts. I in no way claim to have the knowledge or have a fraction of the skills that it takes to put together a good comprenshive study and forcast as a lot of you here can do. I'm just fortunate that I have access to a site such as this. I highly appreciate all your thoughts and comments.

[Lindaloo]

You may be correct Toni. Dr. Steve Lyons of TWC just said that it may move into the Florida Panhandle.

[GulfBreezer]

My question is this.............will it be just a rain producer (which we don't need any more of) or is this going to actually have a chance of increased intensity? There are so many factors to consider!

[Toni - 574]

Just an educated guess but I would think if it does not split it will be stronger. Some of it may break off and go into Fla and some into Texas/Louisiana. Never the less it has a chance to be a TS. if it all holds together.

[ColdFront77]

The latest 6 hour surface map loop indicates the frontal system very slowly moving toward the east coast and the Bermuda high slipping a bit to the east in response to the frontal system.

I don't believe a tropical disturbance can split apart and go in two different directions. Wouldn't it be disorganized if it broke into two pieces?

The slower it moves (it is already moving very slowly) the more it will have a chance to develop over very warm water. Upper level wind shear has increased some, however, it decreased fairly rapidly yesterday. There has been upper level divergence over the system this afternoon.

I don't think the chances of development are too low.

[Toni - 574]

The latest 6 hour surface map loop indicates the frontal system very slowly moving toward the east coast and the Bermuda high slipping a bit to the east in response to the frontal system.

I don't believe a tropical disturbance can split apart and go in two different directions. Wouldn't it be disorganized if it broke into two pieces?

The slower it moves (it is already moving very slowly) the more it will have a chance to develop over very warm water. Upper level wind shear has increased some, however, it decreased fairly rapidly yesterday. There has been upper level divergence over the system this afternoon.

I don't think the chances of development are too low.

Hey Coldfront,
I was not refering to the system being cut in half and then going in opposite directions. I was mearly saying that when I looked at the AM model runs the AVN and the GFS looked as if a piece of energy stayed back and would affect the Texas/Louisiana coast latter in the forcast period. The main bulk was headed for N. Fla. this AM, but as you know things can change as we type. The models are heading more West now.The disturbed area has also become well organized today and I would not be suprised to see a named system with in the next 24 hrs. I'm just learning as I go and I hope that I don't say to much incorrect stuff. but then again I am counting on the people who knows their stuff to correct me! If the trough holds on N. Fla

[ColdFront77]

I understand, Toni. I hope I didn't sound rude. I usually have no reason to get upset with anyone online. Takes a lot.

I figure I'd put the question on the table.

[Toni - 574]

I understand, Toni. I hope I didn't sound rude. I usually have no reason to get upset with anyone online. Takes a lot.

I figure I'd also put the question on the table.

No Coldfront you didn't offend me at all. I just hope that I haven't confused anyone by what I said. Hey, I've been told by my husband a few times that I confuse him (but, I just don't understand why) LOL

[rainstorm]

The latest 6 hour surface map loop indicates the frontal system very slowly moving toward the east coast and the Bermuda high slipping a bit to the east in response to the frontal system.

I don't believe a tropical disturbance can split apart and go in two different directions. Wouldn't it be disorganized if it broke into two pieces?

The slower it moves (it is already moving very slowly) the more it will have a chance to develop over very warm water. Upper level wind shear has increased some, however, it decreased fairly rapidly yesterday. There has been upper level divergence over the system this afternoon.

I don't think the chances of development are too low.

will move into the tx, la area, while most of the moisture is to its east

[Lindaloo]

Thanks for the info Helen. We here on the MS Coast are already experiencing heavy rain with some embedded lightning and thunder. Not a whole lot of winds though.