CSU Hurricane Forecast Update: Now Available

['CaneFreak]

"We will be issuing a final update to our 2007 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast on Tuesday 2 October 2007."

This is a snipet from the September update. Yep, tomorrow will be an interesting day for sure. Maybe there will be some explanation of the increased vertical shear across the Atlantic this far into the season. We'll see.

Here's the link:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

[hurricanetrack]

Wow! I thought we had heard the last of Phil and Bill until December when the first big forecast for 2008 comes out.

Looking forward to reading what they have to say tomorrow. October has been touted all season long as being "the" month of the 2007 season- I guess we're 30 days now from finding out.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We may get a tropical storm in the Gulf and maybe another over the northern Atlantic. But thats all I can see coming out of october.

[cycloneye]

It will be up in the Colorado State University site around 10 AM EDT.

['CaneFreak]

Ding Ding Ding....Its here...check it out!!!!

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ding Ding Ding....Its here...check it out!!!!

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

4/2/1 Here we go!
17 total

Karen will go Cane also..

[alan1961]

http://cbs4.com/topstories/local_story_275094854.html

[alan1961]

"We will be issuing a final update to our 2007 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast on Tuesday 2 October 2007."

This is a snipet from the September update. Yep, tomorrow will be an interesting day for sure. Maybe there will be some explanation of the increased vertical shear across the Atlantic this far into the season. We'll see.

Here's the link:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/

oops..sorry cane..didn't realise that update for CSU was the same as i posted..sorry for the confusion on my part

[Steve H.]

Hey D5, I missed the part about Karen going cane! Can you elaborate

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hey D5, I missed the part about Karen going cane! Can you elaborate

Read the 1st part of his Oct-Nov forecast..You see a Asterek and it states Karen will be a Cane in the post season..

[Steve H.]

Thanks.

[OuterBanker]

Wow, hurricane days of only 10 so far with two cat 5's. Sure isn't the season for long trackers is it. It is interesting that they think Oct and Nov will be about double in activity due to La Nina conditions and it certainly looks that way. I still think Fla and Gulf could get nailed this month, we are pretty much out of it after the 15th (unofficial end of season for NC). I know it's been boring here in the US but I'll take boring. With no hurricanes and hype tourist season was great. And with no major problems in the Gulf gas prices are stable.

[RL3AO]

More proof that Karen will most likely be a hurricane.

[Rieyeuxs]

Quote from the article:

Eight named storms formed in September in the Atlantic basin, tying a record set in 2002 for the most in that month.

But measured by the combined strength and duration of those storms, this September was actually the least active in the Atlantic since 1997, the National Hurricane Center said. That is because most of the September storms were weak and short lived.

/end quote

I agree, tracking this season has pretty much been a bust. For a hyped La Nina season, its been a dud. And for all of those who are going to jump on us for the "season over" quotes, if it hadn't been hyped so much, I wouldn't be so disappointed. Just goes to show how far away science is from accurate forecasting. Heck, they've been saying since May Alabama would even out for rain, and we can't pray a drop out of the sky!

And no, I'm not wishing death and destruction on anyone; just something interesting to track.

[Cyclone1]

17? Hmmm... Where have I seen that forecast for this year before? Oh, right. That was the original forecast...

Not quite the season cancel anymore, huh.

[RL3AO]

Quote from the article:

Eight named storms formed in September in the Atlantic basin, tying a record set in 2002 for the most in that month.

But measured by the combined strength and duration of those storms, this September was actually the least active in the Atlantic since 1997, the National Hurricane Center said. That is because most of the September storms were weak and short lived.

/end quote

I agree, tracking this season has pretty much been a bust. For a hyped La Nina season, its been a dud. And for all of those who are going to jump on us for the "season over" quotes, if it hadn't been hyped so much, I wouldn't be so disappointed. Just goes to show how far away science is from accurate forecasting. Heck, they've been saying since May Alabama would even out for rain, and we can't pray a drop out of the sky!

And no, I'm not wishing death and destruction on anyone; just something interesting to track.

With all due respect, after 2004 and 2005 any season that does not have multiple major hurricanes hitting or threatening the United States will be considered a bust to some (most?).

[hial2]

I fearlesly predict that the Mets will be out of the baseball playoffs and that the Dolphins will go...0-16..

I will give an update on my Dolphins prediction at the end of October,as well as my choice for the World Series..

[Blown Away]

Do you think Philip Klotzbach and William Gray are a little concerned about their 4/2/1 prediction for the remainder of the season. Doesn't look like anything will develop at least for the next few days and we will be half way through October.

[Dionne]

Do you think Philip Klotzbach and William Gray are a little concerned about their 4/2/1 prediction for the remainder of the season. Doesn't look like anything will develop at least for the next few days and we will be half way through October.

I was wondering the same thing.....so I went back and carefully read their Oct/Nov forecast. The "emergence of a now moderate La Nina"....seems to be the key. Another intense hurricane forming in the next six weeks? I dunno? I hope like hell they are wrong. We've booked St Kitts before my wifes next surgery in November. We could sure use some time away from the world.

[hcane27]

Do you think Philip Klotzbach and William Gray are a little concerned about their 4/2/1 prediction for the remainder of the season. Doesn't look like anything will develop at least for the next few days and we will be half way through October.

I am not sure that they are "concerned" so much about the failure or success of the forecast numbers verifying, as they are about why. And that goes for either condition. That is not to say that I don't believe they are not concerned about people, property, etc., in the event of a major, but that scientifically, the concern is about determining the reasons for the success or failure of the forecast itself. Obviously, if it is a "failure", then being able to determine why makes the next forecast "better". That is, assuming that such a forecast is determinable in the first place.