January in the Atlantic

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CrazyC83
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January in the Atlantic

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:10 pm

I know January is a dead month usually (no tropical cyclones and only one subtropical storm has formed in January, although Alice and Zeta survived into January from December), but are there any other potential storms that may have developed into tropical or subtropical cyclones in January?

What are the chances of a different storm forming this January?
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HURAKAN
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:39 pm

Since 1851 there has been only one documented storm in January. Specifically in 1978. That's 1 in 156 years or 0.006 per year.

In January it's better to concentrate in the winter weather or cyclones in the southern hemisphere.
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#3 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:49 pm

Well there was that Virginia gale in 1992. That's the only one I know of.
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Re: January in the Atlantic

#4 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Dec 29, 2007 9:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I know January is a dead month usually (no tropical cyclones and only one subtropical storm has formed in January, although Alice and Zeta survived into January from December), but are there any other potential storms that may have developed into tropical or subtropical cyclones in January?

What are the chances of a different storm forming this January?


http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/084/mwr-084-01-0001.pdf
The report on Hurricane Alice mentions a possible tropical storm in January of 1951, which developed from frontal origins to the north of Puerto Rico.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/1992.html
David Roth mentions of a Mid-Atlantic Polar Low or possibly a subtropical cyclone in January of 1992. Per http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0434/8/2/pdf/i1520-0434-8-2-248.pdf, the low rapidly deepened offshore, and caused moderate damage in the Mid-Atlantic. Per http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=1992_Atlantic_hurricane_season&diff=69052958&oldid=68620107, David Roth added the following to the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season page.
A polar low formed offshore the Mid-Atlantic States in early January and moved up Chesapeake Bay into northern Virginia, with surprisingly warm mid-level temperatures. This system is being evaluated for addition into the hurricane database.
Here is a satellite image. ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b1/.D2790P/images/1992/004/Img-1992-01-04-09-GOE-7-IR.jpg

http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/2005/summ0501.htm
Gary Padgett mentions of an extratropical storm on January 5, 2005. It developed a burst of convection, ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b1/.D2790P/images/2005/005/Img-2005-01-05-03-GOE-12-IR.jpg, but died down before developing.
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