Dr. Gray's 2008 Hurricane predictions: 13/7/3

[dixiebreeze]

From today's annual hurricane conference in Orlando:

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season may spawn a few more storms than originally expected, a Colorado State University research team says.

Dr. William Gray, the country’s best-known hurricane forecaster, and fellow scientist Philip Klotzbach are revamping their computer models after largely missing the mark the past two years. Back in early December, the duo predicted a “somewhat above-average” 2008 season, featuring:
* 13 named storms
* Seven hurricanes
* And three intense hurricanes.

After plugging in a few final numbers, the tropical meteorologists will release an updated forecast April 9.

“We expect a pretty active season. We’re probably not going to lower that,” Gray said of the numbers during an interview at the National Hurricane Conference in Orlando. “Things are looking like a pretty good season.”

Why? Klotzbach said Atlantic Ocean temperatures have increased the past couple months from the African coast to Europe’s Iberian Peninsula. Warmer waters mean lower air pressure and weaker surface winds, he said, creating conditions better-suited for storm formation.

The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30. Klotzbach said his updated statistical models place more emphasis on sea surface temperatures and pressure readings than before.

Last April, the CSU team predicted that 2007 would usher in 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and five intense hurricanes. Those estimates overshot the mark: Totals clocked in at 14, 6 and 2, respectively.

“The last couple years, our forecasts have been not so good. If I had this model the last couple years, we would have done pretty well,” Klotzbach said. “No one likes to say something and have it not come true.”

[dixiebreeze]

Interesting that the forecasters believe the numbers will be revised upwards.

I have a hunch it may be a busy season -- my tomatoes are growing just great.

[MiamiensisWx]

Those are the old December numbers. The next update will be released on April 8...

[wxman57]

Those are the old December numbers. The next update will be released on April 8...

Correct, I saw their presentations this morning. They used the December data and said they would release the new numbers next week at the Bahamas hurricane conference.