Tropical Wave at 43 W with 1008 MB Low (Now Invest 90L)

OURAGAN · #1 Postby **OURAGAN** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:34 pm

Another Tropical Wave at 12N and 43W is assiociated with a 1008 MB lOW.

OURAGAN · #2 Postby **OURAGAN** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:46 pm

It's getting better organized

Gustywind · #3 Postby **Gustywind** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 1:52 pm

Absolutely

you're right :darrow:

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121719
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.
TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LOW-AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V
SIGNATURE S OF 13N. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG
THE AXIS NEAR 12N43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 10N-13N.

#4 Postby **AJC3** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 2:43 pm

I'm assuming that this feature is the smaller vortex that was to the southwest of the larger one when 97L had sort of a "double-barrled" vort structure.

While the extent of cold-topped convection is rather meek compared to both 97L and 98L...in the short term, this area looks like it has the most favorable conditions for spinning up, as it seems to be in a small area within the Atlantic MDR where UL shear is minimal to nil. The CIMSS site is down so I can't post any shear analyses. Doesn't look like it's moving much. I suspect this will be an invest soon if significant convection can refire - though I haven't looked at any high-res global model data today to see what the UL conditions will look like nearby in a few days.

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 8:31 pm

Nice circulation.

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Gustywind · #6 Postby **Gustywind** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 8:37 pm

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INVERTED-V PATTERN IN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG WAVE AXIS N OF 16N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE AXIS S OF 14N...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED
BY A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N43W.

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Oct 12, 2008 8:43 pm

#8 Postby **somethingfunny** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:23 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Nice circulation.

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

That is a really curious sight to see. It looks like the lower system is being sucked into the sheared mass off to the east of Nana. Could these two merge? Or if this does develop, what effect would Nana have on the track?

#9 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:43 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NANA...LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN LOCATED
ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

:rarrow:

AN YET ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT A 1100 MILES
WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...NO
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF NANA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT35 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 1:15 pm

This system in my opinion is very similar to Marco in size and organization.

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 1:27 pm

Our disturbance:

Marco:

#12 Postby **AnnularCane** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 1:42 pm

Somehow I have a hard time seeing delicate little Nana absorbing something that appears more robust than she is, but I suppose it's possible.

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Oct 13, 2008 2:21 pm

90L is here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103589&hilit=&p=1840559#p1840559

Lock time!

Tropical Wave at 43 W with 1008 MB Low (Now Invest 90L)

Tropical Wave at 43 W with 1008 MB Low (Now Invest 90L)

Re: Tropical Wave at 43 W with 1008 MB Low.

Re: Tropical Wave at 43 W with 1008 MB Low.

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Re: Tropical Wave at 43 W with 1008 MB Low.

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