Guess first CSU forecast for 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cycloneye]

While we wait for the first forecast from the Colorado State University team,Philip J. Klotzbach / Dr William Gray for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season to be released in the next few days,lets have some fun by guessing what will the first numbers will be.

Note=Any set of numbers that members post here dont count for the 2009 Storm2k poll as that one will start on March 1.

My guess is that they will have 14/8/4.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Take the 1984 and 1990 hurricane seasons, add 3 to the totals because of the warm cycle AMO.


Back in a minute after checking season archives...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like 84 had 11. I was in the Navy then, don't remember that season at all.

14 in 1990.

Average 12 to 13, add 3, 15 to 16, but not a lot of remarkable storms in 1990. No US landfalls.


ETA

Looking at Wiki, looks like TS Marco hit Florida. But, still...


16/7/3


Probably as good as any guess they'll come up w/ in December.


Based on last two seasons with HOU hurricanes followed by mondo Arctic surges. Like 2008, except the mondo surge is still a week and a half to two weeks away.

[RL3AO]

My guess on their gue...I mean forecast is 15/8/4

[Frank2]

I was at the NHC back in '84 - it was a relatively quiet season (compared to crazy '85)...

Not sure about 1990, but, from what I recall, as others said, it wasn't a notable season, either...

Frank2

[Ed Mahmoud]

I was at the NHC back in '84 - it was a relatively quiet season (compared to crazy '85)...

Not sure about 1990, but, from what I recall, as others said, it wasn't a notable season, either...

Frank2

Best of both worlds- many storms (lots of thread action), but few monsters?

All based on seasons following hurricanes near HOU and Arctic outbreaks, although we haven't had the Arctic outbreak yet...

[Derek Ortt]

I was at the NHC back in '84 - it was a relatively quiet season (compared to crazy '85)...

Not sure about 1990, but, from what I recall, as others said, it wasn't a notable season, either...

Frank2

It was quiet for a while, but I'd have hated that September. Diana would have been enough of a handfull

[Cyclenall]

I think the CSU will post their forecast numbers as 16/6/3 for their December forecast.

[Ptarmigan]

My prediction for 2009 is 15/7/4

[vbhoutex]

I think they will go with 14-5-4 for December.

[cycloneye]

Ok no more guesses as the December forecast is out.