Weak trough from BOC to the Gulf of Tehauntepec

[Ed Mahmoud]

Morning visible (first 4 frames, anyway) seem to suggest a trough axis generating storms, with a suggestion of perhaps a broad and poorly organized circulation at some level, but it doesn't seem to be in any hurry to become anything.

But I suppose it has been about as dry in Deep South Texas. KBRO WSR-88D seems to be on vacation, long range from CRP shows 'rain band" approaching SPI/BRO area, and I'm sure it is welcome.

[lrak]

It sure is welcome, and maybe tomorrow morning we'll have something like that "rain band" coming ashore here.

I do see some LLCirculation under the blob...hmmmm.

Tampico http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMTM.html

[tailgater]

Time sensetive.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... o&loop=yes
Shows a weak circ. nearing the border. I'm happy for you that get some rain out of this and wish we'd get something about this strenght. 103 on my truck's temp today driving 65 for most of the way between N.O and Gonzales.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 232334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR SOUTHERN TEXAS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[lrak]

That outlook is a little more north and indicates the disturbance to be over water longer than previously forecasted. Maybe I'll see a little rain. What is considered significant development, a TD?

[wxman57]

That outlook is a little more north and indicates the disturbance to be over water longer than previously forecasted. Maybe I'll see a little rain. What is considered significant development, a TD?

I think you can stop holding your breath now, the rain is moving into Mexico. CRP NWS office has removed the mention of rain for the area. Might be a little break in the ridge by the first week of July.

[lrak]

That outlook is a little more north and indicates the disturbance to be over water longer than previously forecasted. Maybe I'll see a little rain. What is considered significant development, a TD?

I think you can stop holding your breath now, the rain is moving into Mexico. CRP NWS office has removed the mention of rain for the area. Might be a little break in the ridge by the first week of July.

Thank you wxman, I just saw the radar too... I will hope for that rained out 4th weekend! Thanks for all your input and talking in laymens terms for us non-studies. Need waves!

lrak AKA karl

[funster]

Guess we'll have to keep waiting for storm #1