Circulation South of DR

[Steve H.]

I just noticed some convection and circulation south of the Dominican Republic. Is this an upper level feature or is there any evidence of anything at the surface. At work and don't have time to look. Thanks.

[Sanibel]

Upper level.


The convection associated with it to the SE is probably shear-induced even if it is persistent.

[Frank2]

Way upper level - totally (can't you tell that I was at the NHC during the "big hair '80s")...

LOL

[ciclonson]

upper level, yes... but... RAMSDIS put a 1 km floater on it... not really sure why...

[cycloneye]

Big upper low.

[jpigott]

what is the likelihood of this feature working its way to the surface? Given its proximity to landmasses, including the continental U.S., something to keep an eye on

[Frank2]

Even I'll say that there's certainly a lot of vigor down there, even though it's mostly due to the large ULL - we'll see what happens...

Frank

[ROCK]

Trivia question- anyone know of storm that was an ULL first that drilled down to the surface?

I have heard stories that this could happen.

[BigA]

Trivia question- anyone know of storm that was an ULL first that drilled down to the surface?

I have heard stories that this could happen.

According to this website, the 2004 hurricane that struck Brazil originated from a cutoff upper level low

https://courseware.e-education.psu.edu/ ... _lows.html

I am sorry that I do not immediately have any more normal examples.

[IvanSurvivor]

Big upper low.

OMG! Just signed on...don't know much about all the scientific stuff, but what the heck is that? Looks rather ominous

[Rainband]

it's just at the upper levels

[Dean4Storms]

It needs deep convection to sustain over the center for days, then it might work a low down at the surface.

[Derek Ortt]

ULs usually work there way down to the surface and become TCs in the mid latitudes, not the deep tropics

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures are yoyoing down to the 1009-1012 range but it takes a long time for an upper low to work its way to the surface. The convection that keeps popping up near the center gives this a tropical storm look in a still frame but of course the dynamics are different. You need an engine with warm inflow driving up through the center of circulation and then expanding outwards to get a warm core system. A warm core system looks very different in a dynamic satellite loop so we will know if that happens pretty fast. At low latitudes the upper atmosphere temperature delta from the surface is not as large as it is at mid latitude over the gulf stream.

[IvanSurvivor]

Just wondering if anyone has an opinion on this area today?

[Sanibel]

I don't think anything will develop. 2009 has vigorous Upper Level Lows spinning in the Caribbean at a time when the Caribbean should be more favorable. 2009 is unfavorable.