cone of uncertainty/certainty?

[windsurfer77058]

Has the track or land fall of any storms ever gotten outside of that storm's previous cone's of uncertainty?

Also, it seems like they should be called cones of certainty. Like, we are certain the future track of the storm will be inside this cone.
Perhaps cone of uncertainty means they are uncertain where in the cone the track will be.
Cone of certainty makes more sense to me.
Thanks

[RL3AO]

Has the track or land fall of any storms ever gotten outside of that storm's previous cone's of uncertainty?

Absolutely. Happens quite often. In fact, the size of the "cone of uncertainty" is 67% of the last seasons (or maybe its multiple seasons) average error.

[Hurricanehink]

A great example that comes to mind is Hurricane Ernesto. The long range forecasts consistently had it going into the central Gulf of Mexico, with the cone of uncertainty offshore western Florida. The storm ultimately went well east of there, moving over eastern Florida and later striking the Carolinas.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2006/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml

[thetruesms]

From the NHC product description

To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

They're trying to account for the fact that every forecast has error, which generally grows with time. But also account for only some of the uncertainty, so the cone isn't so large as to make the forecast useless. They would probably shy away from using "certainty" in any forecast product because it implies 100% certainty, which virtually never exists, and when it does, only at extremely short time ranges.

[JonathanBelles]

You say that the cone of certainty makes more sense to you, and it is flat out wrong. It is a cone of uncertainty for many reasons. If it was a certainty cone, then it would be far smaller indicating certainty. The Cone of Uncertainly is an area where a system will go in 2 out of 3 scenerios and provides enough room for all of those bumped and junts that systems go through. Track forecasting is still a work in progress. The NHC will in no way, and never will say they are 'certain' about a particular track. Meteorology is far from a perfect science.

[windsurfer77058]

The example of "Ernesto" was great.
In all the years of tracking storms coming to the texas coasts I don't recall any getting out of the cone.
Thanks for the definition below you provided. It is interesting. What is the definition of "error" they use.

"To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles."