Poll on Caribbean Disturbance

[timNms]

I'm not an expert and I didn't stay at the holiday inn express last night, but looks like we may have a td in the Caribbean. I'm hoping it stays away from MS.

Been reading everyone's posts on it and thought I'd start a new one. Also thought maybe a poll would be interesting too.

Tim

[Agua]

Maybe some of the pros around here will come in and weigh in on this. bump. There are several professionals that frequent this board.

[timNms]

n/t

[chadtm80]

Tim what do you want the poll to be?? I will edit your post to include it

[timNms]

something along the lines of: td at 11pm, td at 4am or you're crazy, this thing ain't gonna do nuttin...

lol

Thanks,
Tim

[wxman57]

No, no TD yet - no low level circulation. It's still in a bit of shear to the east of an upper-high that is over the Yucatan. Conditions won't become really favorable until it moves into the Gulf late Friday and Saturday. I think we'll see the NHC talking about a recon tomorrow (for Saturday). By the time the plane gets out there Saturday afternoon it should find a LLC and we'll have TD 11. As we've all seen many times before, any system in the Gulf can strengthen VERY quickly if upper level wind shear isn't a problem. So the key question is just how long any circulation center will remain offshore. Less than 24 hrs and most likely a moderate TS. Over 36 hours and maybe a strong TS or a hurricane. Interesting that the first run of the BAMM takes it to Brownsville in 4 days then moves it inland VERY slowly.

I'm not sure about a hit that far south. There's a pretty strong high off just east of Florida. 850mb-700mb flow is moderate from the southeast from the Yucatan to the upper TX coast. Based on that, I'd suspect landfall on the upper TX coast to southwest LA coast. This system reminds me a lot of Allison in 2001. Lots of moisture and weakening steering currents at landfall. Then not much to move it around after landfall. Could be a real rainfall-producer.

[Sean in New Orleans]

It needs the low level circulation. However, the system is already big.

[Agua]

Thanks Wx-57. It probably seems silly to you guys but for we laymen who can't analyze these systems and the factors which influence them, we can easily get concerned when one of these systems gets close to us. I'll genuinely rest easier thanks to your analysis. Thanks a bunch man.