What do you people make of this?

[Agua]

A fellow using the ID "CoastaVA" on the PBP board posted this from the Hydrometeorlogical Prediction Center. It doesn't appear to square with ANYTHING we've been seeing from TPC. From the "Preliminary Extended Forecast":

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE EAST CONTINUE TO DRAW UP A
DISTURBANCE/EASTERLY WAVE FROM THE WRN CARIB/TROPICS.
EVERY MODEL... INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS/06Z GFS/UKMET AND
CANADIAN... ALL HAVE THIS FEATURE AOA LA BY DAY 3. THE NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A WEAKNESS AND INVERTED TROUGH
THROUGH THE SAME AREA. THE OUTLIER IN THE FCST IS THE
ECMWF THAT DEPICTS THIS DISTURBANCE ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF TX. CONTINUITY... THE MODELS ALL SHOWED THIS FEATURE
YESTERDAY EITHER MOVING UP OUT OF THE WRN CARIB OR
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE ONE TREND IS MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS SYSTEM INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DAY 2/3. AFTER DAY 3...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

Is this referring to 94L?? I thought it was a darned near concensus that the thing was headed to Texas?

[Stormchaser16]

Yea that is in reference to 94L and since when has it been a consensus that it was headed towards Texas? EC was the first to notice it and bring it towards Texas, but with a trough coming through, it would probably drive it back a bit further east, of course my main focus is in Fabian right now but that is my thinking.

[WeatherNLU]

How can anything be a consenus on movement before it even forms! Regardless of that at this point, look at the flare ups of bands in the Gulf. Could get nasty on the Gulf Coast tonight and over the weekend.

[Stormchaser16]

LOL.....

Yup.... even "if" this system doesnt develop, wherever it heads to is in for some pretty nasty tropical deluging.

[Agua]

Guess I jumped the gun! I guess I came up with the term "consensus" based upon the apparent majority of posters here and elsewhere, along with the models on the wrel site, which indicate that TX is the target. In another thread, you, stormchaser, indicated that you thought TX was most likely as well, though you did acknowledge uncertainty. The above discussion talks about model runs which I haven't seen, bringing the system into the "central gulf", which I understand to be from about, say, western Louisiana to AL/FL border.

[Stormchaser16]

Yea i said Texas..... And i still am, although I am specifiying as to middle to upper Texas coast with La as a possibility as well. Dont feel bad!