So, based on climatology from 1995 to 2010 (the modern era), here is what we can expect for the rest of the year (based on storms that formed today or later in the season):
8 tropical depressions, 7 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 majors hurricanes, which would bring the current total to (assuming Katia becomes a major) 21/19/7/4
That includes a few outliers, those being 2005 (the most epic season on record) and the notable El Niño ones (1997, 2006, and 2009). Removing those gives 9 TD's, 8 TS's, 5 H's and 2 MH's, bringing it to 22/20/7/4.
Neither would quite produce a season to get to the Greek alphabet, but both would still result in the season being either 3rd or tied for 4th most active season. However, there are five seasons that, if 2011 followed the same activity from here to the end of the year, would get to the magic number of 22 named storms. Those are:
2000 (which would result in 24/22/8/4)
2001 (which would result in 24/22/10/5)
2005 (which would result in 29/26/11/5, ending on Epsilon)
2007 (which would result in 24/22/5/2)
and 2010 (which would result in 25/24/10/5)
That is 5/16 seasons, or 31% of going Greek. This is merely based on probabilities and statistics, and isn't meant to be an accurate prediction.
For fun, here is what would happen with:
1887 (3rd most active) - 23/9/2
1933 (2nd most active) - 21/7/4
1969 (4th most active) - 24/10/2
Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
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Hurricanehink
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
With the addition of Maria, here are the updated odds of going Greek. Currently we have 13/2/2.
Since 1995, the average season from September 8th onward is 7/5/2, which would bring the total to 20/7/4.
When removing the outliers (2005 for its epicness and 1997/2006/2009 due to El Nino), it yields 8/5/2, which would bring the total to 21/7/4.
That is one storm closer than the last update was, but it's still slightly short. To get to 22 named storms, 2011 needs another 9 storms, which occurred in 6/16 seasons, or 37.5%. Those are: 1998, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, and 2010. Probability wise, that has increased, but it's still more likely for it not to reach Greek.
Going back to 1950, only three season's activity from 9/8 onward would yield the 22 named storms - 1953, 1969, and 1984. That gives a 9/60 probability, or 15%.
Since 1995, the average season from September 8th onward is 7/5/2, which would bring the total to 20/7/4.
When removing the outliers (2005 for its epicness and 1997/2006/2009 due to El Nino), it yields 8/5/2, which would bring the total to 21/7/4.
That is one storm closer than the last update was, but it's still slightly short. To get to 22 named storms, 2011 needs another 9 storms, which occurred in 6/16 seasons, or 37.5%. Those are: 1998, 2000, 2001, 2005, 2007, and 2010. Probability wise, that has increased, but it's still more likely for it not to reach Greek.
Going back to 1950, only three season's activity from 9/8 onward would yield the 22 named storms - 1953, 1969, and 1984. That gives a 9/60 probability, or 15%.
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
And now we have Nate! However, there aren't any areas of development in the next 48 hours. Here are the odds of going Greek, based on the number of storms forming on or after 9/10.
Since 1995, the average season had 7/4/2 - with Nate, that would yield 21/6/4. When removing the outliers, the season has 7/5/2, which would yield 21/7/4.
Only 8 more storms are needed to get to Alpha, which has happened in 6 seasons (same as above). The odds are still 37.5%.
Since 1995, the average season had 7/4/2 - with Nate, that would yield 21/6/4. When removing the outliers, the season has 7/5/2, which would yield 21/7/4.
Only 8 more storms are needed to get to Alpha, which has happened in 6 seasons (same as above). The odds are still 37.5%.
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
Seeing as it's been a week, I thought I'd update this. Since 1995, the average season, regardless whether outliers are included or not, has seen six named storms after this point. That would put this season at 20 named storms.
It would need eight named storms to go Greek, which has only happened in 2001, 2005, and 2010. That is only a 19% chance of going Greek. It's fairly small, but it's still possible.
It would need eight named storms to go Greek, which has only happened in 2001, 2005, and 2010. That is only a 19% chance of going Greek. It's fairly small, but it's still possible.
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somethingfunny
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Let's look at some other recent La Nina seasons, as of September 15:
1996: 8/6/4 Final numbers: 13/9/6 or 5/3/2 after Sept.15
1998: 6/3/1 (Georges was first named 9/16) Final numbers: 14/10/3 or 8/7/2 after Sept.15
1999: 7/5/4 (Gert and Floyd were both majors at this point) Final numbers: 12/8/5 or 5/3/1 after Sept.15
2000: 6/3/1 (Gordon was named 9/16 and Florence waffled back and forth from wave to depression until being named 9/21) Final numbers: 15/8/3 or 9/5/2 after Sept.15
2001: 7/2/2 (Gabrielle was a tropical storm, became a hurricane 9/17) Final numbers: 15/9/4 or 8/7/2 after Sept.15
2003: 9/5/2 (Isabel was the only game in town from 9/8 to 9/24, can you say LULL?
) Final numbers: 16/7/3 or 7/2/1 after Sept.15
2007: 9/3/2 Final numbers: 15/6/2 or 6/3/0 after Sept.15
2008: 10/5/3 Final numbers: 16/8/5 or 6/3/2 after Sept.15
2010: 11/5/4 (Igor and Julia were both Cat4 on this date; Karl was still a tropical storm) Final numbers: 19/12/5 or 8/7/1 after Sept.15
Even the La Nina with the weakest late season had 5 storms, which would take this season to Tammy. Most of them would get us Greek.
1996: 8/6/4 Final numbers: 13/9/6 or 5/3/2 after Sept.15
1998: 6/3/1 (Georges was first named 9/16) Final numbers: 14/10/3 or 8/7/2 after Sept.15
1999: 7/5/4 (Gert and Floyd were both majors at this point) Final numbers: 12/8/5 or 5/3/1 after Sept.15
2000: 6/3/1 (Gordon was named 9/16 and Florence waffled back and forth from wave to depression until being named 9/21) Final numbers: 15/8/3 or 9/5/2 after Sept.15
2001: 7/2/2 (Gabrielle was a tropical storm, became a hurricane 9/17) Final numbers: 15/9/4 or 8/7/2 after Sept.15
2003: 9/5/2 (Isabel was the only game in town from 9/8 to 9/24, can you say LULL?
) Final numbers: 16/7/3 or 7/2/1 after Sept.152007: 9/3/2 Final numbers: 15/6/2 or 6/3/0 after Sept.15
2008: 10/5/3 Final numbers: 16/8/5 or 6/3/2 after Sept.15
2010: 11/5/4 (Igor and Julia were both Cat4 on this date; Karl was still a tropical storm) Final numbers: 19/12/5 or 8/7/1 after Sept.15
Even the La Nina with the weakest late season had 5 storms, which would take this season to Tammy. Most of them would get us Greek.
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
Ignoring the number of tropical storms and using only hurricanes and major hurricanes for analog, the most similar seasons are 1998, 2000 and 2007. Still a long way to go for this season to end. Thanks for those statistics!
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
Hurricane Season Hits Pause, But Isn't Over
Our Amazing Planet
Mid-August marked an uptick in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean, with one storm always seeming to follow on the heels of another. But lately, the tropics have quieted down.
Hurricane Maria, the third hurricane of the 2011 season, is expected to hit Newfoundland, Canada, today (Sept. 16), but there are no other tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms) after this one the radar. But don't think for a second that hurricane season is headed for an early exit, experts say.
"In no way, shape or form is this season over," said Dennis Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
If, for some odd reason, no other tropical storms were to form this year, it would be the earliest end ever for an Atlantic hurricane season. The earliest date in the satellite era of the last active tropical cyclone in a given year was Sept. 21, 1993. Hurricane season officially ends Nov.1.
Feltgen and others say we're not likely to set a new record this year.
"I would be incredibly surprised if Maria was the last tropical cyclone in the Atlantic," said Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. "While it looks like we're going into a somewhat quieter period for a little bit, it's not that unusual to have a quiet period during an active season," Klotzbach said.
This season was predicted to be a doozy, with 14 to 19 named storms (which include tropical storms and hurricanes), seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). So far there have been 14 named storms (Nate formed shortly after Maria, but dissipated after striking Mexico shortly after it developed), three hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Irene and Katia).
The tropics seem to have quieted down as storms shift their birthplace to the west in the Atlantic basin. At the beginning of the season, tropical cyclones form near Cape Verde, off the coast of Western Africa. Toward the end of the season, they begin closer to the West Caribbean. This puts the southeastern United Sates in the crosshairs. October is typically an active month for that region.
Most of the global models suggest that another storm should develop in about nine days, Klotzbach said. And with the warm Atlantic waters and La Niña's return — which has been linked to active hurricane seasons — more big storms could be on the way.
"It's nice we got a little chance to breathe and collect our thoughts, but we are far from over," Feltgen said.
Our Amazing Planet
Mid-August marked an uptick in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean, with one storm always seeming to follow on the heels of another. But lately, the tropics have quieted down.
Hurricane Maria, the third hurricane of the 2011 season, is expected to hit Newfoundland, Canada, today (Sept. 16), but there are no other tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms) after this one the radar. But don't think for a second that hurricane season is headed for an early exit, experts say.
"In no way, shape or form is this season over," said Dennis Feltgen of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
If, for some odd reason, no other tropical storms were to form this year, it would be the earliest end ever for an Atlantic hurricane season. The earliest date in the satellite era of the last active tropical cyclone in a given year was Sept. 21, 1993. Hurricane season officially ends Nov.1.
Feltgen and others say we're not likely to set a new record this year.
"I would be incredibly surprised if Maria was the last tropical cyclone in the Atlantic," said Phil Klotzbach, an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. "While it looks like we're going into a somewhat quieter period for a little bit, it's not that unusual to have a quiet period during an active season," Klotzbach said.
This season was predicted to be a doozy, with 14 to 19 named storms (which include tropical storms and hurricanes), seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). So far there have been 14 named storms (Nate formed shortly after Maria, but dissipated after striking Mexico shortly after it developed), three hurricanes and two major hurricanes (Irene and Katia).
The tropics seem to have quieted down as storms shift their birthplace to the west in the Atlantic basin. At the beginning of the season, tropical cyclones form near Cape Verde, off the coast of Western Africa. Toward the end of the season, they begin closer to the West Caribbean. This puts the southeastern United Sates in the crosshairs. October is typically an active month for that region.
Most of the global models suggest that another storm should develop in about nine days, Klotzbach said. And with the warm Atlantic waters and La Niña's return — which has been linked to active hurricane seasons — more big storms could be on the way.
"It's nice we got a little chance to breathe and collect our thoughts, but we are far from over," Feltgen said.
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hurricanedude
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If, for some odd reason, no other tropical storms were to form this year, it would be the earliest end ever for an Atlantic hurricane season. The earliest date in the satellite era of the last active tropical cyclone in a given year was Sept. 21, 1993. Hurricane season officially ends Nov.1.
I thought it ended the 30th of November?????
I thought it ended the 30th of November?????
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Re:
hurricanedude wrote:If, for some odd reason, no other tropical storms were to form this year, it would be the earliest end ever for an Atlantic hurricane season. The earliest date in the satellite era of the last active tropical cyclone in a given year was Sept. 21, 1993. Hurricane season officially ends Nov.1.
I thought it ended the 30th of November?????
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1, 2011, and will end on November 30, 2011.(according to wilkipedia)...
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Awesome stats! Going nuts with them I have the following data:
For the 9 La Nina seasons you listed, the average # of named storms before September 15 was 8.2. These 9 seasons averaged a total # of 15 named storms by the time the season ended. That equates to 8.2/15, or 54.8% of named systems before September 15.
If we use that % for the 2011 season and assume we have seen the average 54.8% of our named systems as of 9/15, that would mean we still have 45.2% or between 11 and 12 named systems left to go, which would get us to either Delta or Epsilon.
7 more names until we finish the list with W....8 more named systems and we go Greek. I would say we have a better 70% chance of getting to Alpha.
For the 9 La Nina seasons you listed, the average # of named storms before September 15 was 8.2. These 9 seasons averaged a total # of 15 named storms by the time the season ended. That equates to 8.2/15, or 54.8% of named systems before September 15.
If we use that % for the 2011 season and assume we have seen the average 54.8% of our named systems as of 9/15, that would mean we still have 45.2% or between 11 and 12 named systems left to go, which would get us to either Delta or Epsilon.
7 more names until we finish the list with W....8 more named systems and we go Greek. I would say we have a better 70% chance of getting to Alpha.
somethingfunny wrote:Let's look at some other recent La Nina seasons, as of September 15:
1996: 8/6/4 Final numbers: 13/9/6 or 5/3/2 after Sept.15
1998: 6/3/1 (Georges was first named 9/16) Final numbers: 14/10/3 or 8/7/2 after Sept.15
1999: 7/5/4 (Gert and Floyd were both majors at this point) Final numbers: 12/8/5 or 5/3/1 after Sept.15
2000: 6/3/1 (Gordon was named 9/16 and Florence waffled back and forth from wave to depression until being named 9/21) Final numbers: 15/8/3 or 9/5/2 after Sept.15
2001: 7/2/2 (Gabrielle was a tropical storm, became a hurricane 9/17) Final numbers: 15/9/4 or 8/7/2 after Sept.15
2003: 9/5/2 (Isabel was the only game in town from 9/8 to 9/24, can you say LULL?
2007: 9/3/2 Final numbers: 15/6/2 or 6/3/0 after Sept.15
2008: 10/5/3 Final numbers: 16/8/5 or 6/3/2 after Sept.15
2010: 11/5/4 (Igor and Julia were both Cat4 on this date; Karl was still a tropical storm) Final numbers: 19/12/5 or 8/7/1 after Sept.15
Even the La Nina with the weakest late season had 5 storms, which would take this season to Tammy. Most of them would get us Greek.
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gigabite
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
I am thinking that there could be one more surge of storms near the end of the month based on accumulated global moisture. I don’t have a handle on if that moisture will be in the tropics or in the Hadley Circulation. I think it is more likely that the moisture falls along the 50th parallel not the tropics.
As far as tropical analog years go the period between 2001 and 2005 were unique and are hard to fit into any of the regular schemes.
The segments called satellite analog years should be categorized because; there is a substantial difference in the processing capability from 2001 to 2006 (GOES M TO GOES N). Beginning with 2006 the imagery processor can distinguish between upper and lower level clouds in such a way that it has a noticeable difference in the yearly tropical storm count, the satellites before 1986 were in an era I call pre real time.
No season is truly the same as another, and the technology to interpret them in always improving. There are cycles in the patterns of storms that are in effect mechanical. They haven’t been well studied. Statistical analysis is the only way to shake out the time frame of the patterns.
As far as tropical analog years go the period between 2001 and 2005 were unique and are hard to fit into any of the regular schemes.
The segments called satellite analog years should be categorized because; there is a substantial difference in the processing capability from 2001 to 2006 (GOES M TO GOES N). Beginning with 2006 the imagery processor can distinguish between upper and lower level clouds in such a way that it has a noticeable difference in the yearly tropical storm count, the satellites before 1986 were in an era I call pre real time.
No season is truly the same as another, and the technology to interpret them in always improving. There are cycles in the patterns of storms that are in effect mechanical. They haven’t been well studied. Statistical analysis is the only way to shake out the time frame of the patterns.
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
Now that we have Ophelia, it's time for more stats! The season currently stands at 15 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Since 1995, the average season after this point is 5/3/1, which would bring this season to 20/6/3.
When accounting for outliers (2005 due to epic-ness, and 1997/2002/2006/2009 due to El Niño), we get 6/3/1, which would bring the season to 21/6/3. That would be a rather disappointing Tropical Storm Whitney.
The season needs 7 more storms to get to Greek alphabet, which has happened in these seasons:
2000 (7/4/2) which would make 22/7/4 (including a retired storm)
2001 (8/6/2) which would make 23/9/4 (including two retired storms)
2003 (7/2/1) which would make 22/5/3
2005 (11/5/2) which would make 26/8/4
2010 (7/5/0) which would make 22/8/2 (including a retired storm)
The odds of going Greek has increased to 31.25% with Ophelia's formation.
When accounting for outliers (2005 due to epic-ness, and 1997/2002/2006/2009 due to El Niño), we get 6/3/1, which would bring the season to 21/6/3. That would be a rather disappointing Tropical Storm Whitney.
The season needs 7 more storms to get to Greek alphabet, which has happened in these seasons:
2000 (7/4/2) which would make 22/7/4 (including a retired storm)
2001 (8/6/2) which would make 23/9/4 (including two retired storms)
2003 (7/2/1) which would make 22/5/3
2005 (11/5/2) which would make 26/8/4
2010 (7/5/0) which would make 22/8/2 (including a retired storm)
The odds of going Greek has increased to 31.25% with Ophelia's formation.
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somethingfunny
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I'm throwing this out here....
1995:
Hurricane LUIS (27 AUG-12 SEP)
Hurricane MARILYN (12 SEP-01 OCT)
Hurricane NOEL (26 SEP-07 OCT)
Hurricane OPAL (27 SEP-06 OCT)
Can you say SEPTEMBER LULL?
I should have put 1995 in that analog I wrote earlier. Pre-9/15 it was 13/6/2, 13/6/3 if you want to stretch it to 9/16 when Marilyn briefly attained Category Three strength. Following Marilyn there was a big lull, and then Noel, Opal, Pablo, Roxanne, Sebastien, and Tanya. 6/4/2.
1995:
Hurricane LUIS (27 AUG-12 SEP)
Hurricane MARILYN (12 SEP-01 OCT)
Hurricane NOEL (26 SEP-07 OCT)
Hurricane OPAL (27 SEP-06 OCT)
Can you say SEPTEMBER LULL?
I should have put 1995 in that analog I wrote earlier. Pre-9/15 it was 13/6/2, 13/6/3 if you want to stretch it to 9/16 when Marilyn briefly attained Category Three strength. Following Marilyn there was a big lull, and then Noel, Opal, Pablo, Roxanne, Sebastien, and Tanya. 6/4/2.
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Hurricanehink
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Re:
Chacor wrote:I'd suggest 15/16 years of data is a rather small sample size, really.
I do agree, but going any further back would not be representative of the recent active period in the Atlantic.
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This may be a little off topic but I have noticed that since Maria cloud tops accociated with tropical waves and tropical storms in the deep tropical atlantic have become significantly colder on average than systems that occored before Maria. The change was very abrupt and has been maintained for several weeks so far.
Dose this happen each year? and what is the cause? or is this just a sign that the low vertical instability that has plagued the atlantic this season has finally increased?
To keep this post on topic, I would assume that any increase in the depth of convection in general, would favor the formation of tropical cyclones and therefore the odds of going Greek which is now looking fairly likely with O all ready here and P possibly in a day or two if it develops.
Dose this happen each year? and what is the cause? or is this just a sign that the low vertical instability that has plagued the atlantic this season has finally increased?
To keep this post on topic, I would assume that any increase in the depth of convection in general, would favor the formation of tropical cyclones and therefore the odds of going Greek which is now looking fairly likely with O all ready here and P possibly in a day or two if it develops.
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Hurricanehink
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
The odds have gone up! With the addition of Philippe, the 2011 season only needs six more storms to go Greek.
Since 95, the average from here on out is 6 more storms, which would put it at 21. 7 seasons (95, 00, 01, 03, 05, 08, 10) have accomplished that, for a probability of 44%.
To Westwind, I find it odd too. Maybe it's a MJO pulse now???
Since 95, the average from here on out is 6 more storms, which would put it at 21. 7 seasons (95, 00, 01, 03, 05, 08, 10) have accomplished that, for a probability of 44%.
To Westwind, I find it odd too. Maybe it's a MJO pulse now???
Last edited by Hurricanehink on Sat Sep 24, 2011 8:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
If we get another storm out of 91L, we'll be on par with 2005 until the first of October.
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Re: Climatology for the rest of the year (+ odds of going Greek)
Macrocane wrote:Ignoring the number of tropical storms and using only hurricanes and major hurricanes for analog, the most similar seasons are 1998, 2000 and 2007. Still a long way to go for this season to end. Thanks for those statistics!
1998 and 2007 were active in landfall for Texas.
1998-Charley and Frances
2007-Erin and Humberto
1998 and 2000 were late starters. 1998 is the deadliest season besides 1780 and 1900. This season also reminds me of 1936.
1936
16/7/1
ACE=108
ACE/Storm=6.75
2011
16/3/2
ACE=77
ACE/Storm=4.82
Since you mentioned 1998, 2000, and 2007. Let's look at that.
1998
14/10/3
ACE=182
ACE/Storm=13
2000
15/8/3
ACE=116
ACE/Storm=7.73
2007
15/6/2
ACE=72
ACE/Storm=4.8
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Re:
westwind wrote:This may be a little off topic but I have noticed that since Maria cloud tops accociated with tropical waves and tropical storms in the deep tropical atlantic have become significantly colder on average than systems that occored before Maria. The change was very abrupt and has been maintained for several weeks so far.
Maybe it's a MJO pulse now???
The MJO is actually unfavorable.
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However, according to that outlook, the MJO will become more favorable, especially in the Caribbean. Combined with all the frontal storms this year, I wonder if 6 more storms will form to get to the Greek list.
Edited because it looks like 91L might not intensify.
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