Early October System

[Hurricanehink]

It's now getting to the late-season game when anything in the western Caribbean bears watching. That is the climatologically favored area for formation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html

There is a disturbance between Honduras and Cuba that appears stalled along a stationary front. There is a large area of convection, and the TWD says there is "LOW LEVEL CONVERGING FLOW".

Any chance for development there?

[Hylian Auree]

Maybe, but surface analysis doesn't have anything special there. Looks like an upper westerly flow is causing heavy shear in the region as well, and there is no prominent vorticity at the mid levels either. Convergence is also on the decrease. Likely just some convective flaring due to upper divergence that'll diminish soon.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Looks like the convection is persisting here. Maybe we will have to watch this area. Heck it looks better organized than Phillipe! He he.

[Sanibel]

The node of the stationary front is exactly where you would look, however there's an unseasonable dry front currently above it.

[southerngale]

Jeff Lindner (meteorologist in Houston) mentioned the Caribbean in his morning email today.


Gulf:

The old frontal boundary which moved through TX last Friday has found its way down into the western Caribbean where it has stalled out this morning. Satellite shows a disorganized area of showers near this boundary from south of Cuba to the central American coast. Several models have been hinting at sub-tropical or tropical cyclone formation within this region by this weekend and lift the system northward into the region of the eastern Gulf of Mexico/S FL/Cuba over the weekend. ECMWF is by far the more aggressive model with the GFS much weaker. Upper pattern over the SE/E US is interesting for early October with what appears to be enough ridging to block much northward motion of the system near FL. Much uncertainty with where/how this system forms and tracks and how purely tropical it becomes. For now TX should lie well to the west, but surface flow may be increased out of the ENE/NE by early next week pumping dry air SW toward eastern TX and increasing gusty winds…fire weather concerns may be increased.

[AJC3]

Jeff Lindner (meteorologist in Houston) mentioned the Caribbean in his morning email today.


Gulf:

The old frontal boundary which moved through TX last Friday has found its way down into the western Caribbean where it has stalled out this morning. Satellite shows a disorganized area of showers near this boundary from south of Cuba to the central American coast. Several models have been hinting at sub-tropical or tropical cyclone formation within this region by this weekend and lift the system northward into the region of the eastern Gulf of Mexico/S FL/Cuba over the weekend. ECMWF is by far the more aggressive model with the GFS much weaker. Upper pattern over the SE/E US is interesting for early October with what appears to be enough ridging to block much northward motion of the system near FL. Much uncertainty with where/how this system forms and tracks and how purely tropical it becomes. For now TX should lie well to the west, but surface flow may be increased out of the ENE/NE by early next week pumping dry air SW toward eastern TX and increasing gusty winds…fire weather concerns may be increased.

And Texas continues to get the shaft. Gotta feel for our TX peeps and peepettes.

[Blown Away]

I see some general cyclonic turning with scattered convection in the NW Caribbean. I say we see a Yellow Polygon over this area today.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[KUEFC]

Isnt that just an area that is part of the stationary point? they already discuss it in their Tropical weather discussion.

[CronkPSU]

is this the area where i keep seeing people freaking out about a florida event over the weekend and early next week?

[KUEFC]

is this the area where i keep seeing people freaking out about a florida event over the weekend and early next week?

very possible but i hope not so much this weekend lol

[Rainband]

is this the area where i keep seeing people freaking out about a florida event over the weekend and early next week?

not sure anyone is "freaking out" just keeping an eye out. It's the time of year that we have to

[floridasun78]

their not thing in nw carribbean yet

[CronkPSU]

is this the area where i keep seeing people freaking out about a florida event over the weekend and early next week?

not sure anyone is "freaking out" just keeping an eye out. It's the time of year that we have to

not here but on Twitter and on tv

[Typhoon_Willie]

Local TV Met here in West Palm Beach said that something named (could tropical or some sort of hybrid) could make it into the eastern Gulf then cross South Florida and go into the Bahamas this weekend. We shall see...

[AJC3]

Local TV Met here in West Palm Beach said that something named (could tropical or some sort of hybrid) could make it into the eastern Gulf then cross South Florida and go into the Bahamas this weekend. We shall see...

I think he has the steering pattern bass-ackwards. None of the models show, or have shown in previous runs, a system moving toward the NE. It's forecast to move somewhere between NW and NNW.

[Typhoon_Willie]

He mentioned that the old front in the NW Carribean may move back north and supposedly a low pressure system forms on this front and it is this entity that may cross South Fla.

[AJC3]

He mentioned that the old front in the NW Carribean may move back north and supposedly a low pressure system forms on this front and it is this entity that may cross South Fla.

Yeah, all the guidance is showing some sort of formation...the problem with his thinking is that nothing will be moving NE into the strong blocking ridge for the next several days.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Not a problem AJC3! Just a possible thing to watch anyway.