Upcoming week - October 10-16

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

Overall, last week was centered on Philippe alone. I was pretty confident in the track, but less confident in the intensity when looking at this storm. All in all, this storm was well-behaved on track, but slow to intensify at first and then sluggish to weaken later. The northward turn also came a day later than I anticipated, happening on Wednesday instead of Tuesday. I didn't really go into the track from there but I was thinking a northeastward track from there, which did happen. As for the intensity, Philippe became a hurricane on Thursday morning, not Wednesday like I said. That bout of hurricane intensity lasted as long as I thought, about 24 hours, and then he weakened to a tropical storm on Friday....but I predicted it for Thursday night. The shear also didn't weaken him to a depression, though Philippe did become extratropical on Saturday night, also 24 hours late.

Really, when looking at it, I was about 24 hours late on all fronts with this one. However, I did at least see most of what happened with Philippe coming. I was also correct in not predicting any other storms this past week. Not a bad week overall, so I give myself a B for this past week.

How does this new week look? Let's take a look....I apologize if there are any miscues as I am camping and need to make this a quick one. However, I am more confident this time than I was in August when a similar instance happened.

Current situation and models

With Philippe gone, the Atlantic is taking a break....for now. There is Invest 93L though off of Florida. This appears to quickly be about to move inland, which would practically end all chances of development, especially since models keep it inland from there heading into the Carolinas. Any development would probably be no more than a tropical or subtropical depression, though with a 30 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, and the system already about to move onshore, even that seems generous.

Elsewhere, no reliable models are picking up on anything this upcoming week. There is a very favorable MJO approaching the Caribbean, evidenced by Irwin and Jova in the Eastern Pacific, but any developments appear to be beyond this week.

Recent history

In this past 50 years, the following years have had no tropical cyclones:

1960
1961
1971
1972
1975
1976
1979
1981
1982
1983
1986
1992
1993
1994
2006
2007

Out of these 16 hurricane seasons, only 1961, 1971, 1981, and 2007 were at about average at best. There were no hurricane seasons with the type of activity in terms of named storms exhibited so far in 2011 seen to date. However, this season has also had five hurricanes out of sixteen storms. Seasons in that category, with at least five hurricanes, would include 1961, 1971, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1981, 2006, and 2007. That's eight seasons total, about half the original sample.

So what does this all tell us?

Just because nothing develops this upcoming week, doesn't mean it's automatically an average or below average season. This season has been busy, and the hurricanes have been coming in recent weeks. Also, the MJO could just as easily stick around in the Eastern Pacific for a while, and then migrate into the Atlantic next week. Models do still like something to form in the Caribbean, but again it's a matter of when, and this upcoming week just doesn't seem to be the time.

The Prediction

First, let's just knock out Invest 93L. I predict no tropical or subtropical development for Invest 93L. Confidence is 85%. However, I do expect a heavy rain threat for much of the Southeast Coast and getting further north throughout the first half of this week.

As for elsewhere, average season or not, it's all in the current atmosphere and what the models are saying that dictates what will happen. The overall opinion is that the Caribbean just isn't all the way there yet for this upcoming week, but it probably will be soon. I predict no tropical cyclone development in the Caribbean or anywhere else in the Atlantic this upcoming week. Confidence is 80%.

-Andrew92

PS By the way, Utah is really beautiful for anyone who's never been there! Highly recommend a visit sometime.

[FireRat]

Thanks for always posting your predictions Andrew92,
Have a great time!

[Andrew92]

I did have a great time on vacation! But now it is time to evaluate....

It was a rather simple prediction this past week, as I called for no tropical cyclones to develop. One can debate all they want if Invest 93L did in fact develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone of some sort, and there is certainly merit to that. The system appeared to have a tight but weak circulation, but it just wasn’t clear enough if it was warm core or a hybrid of some sort. Even so, I was correct in the general threat being primarily rain. Also, Invest 95L is threatening to develop in the Caribbean, but hasn’t done so yet. Therefore, even with the debate, it stands that no storms developed this past week. However, I am going to very slightly dock myself just in case Invest 93L gets re-analyzed one way or the other. My grade for this past week is an A- as a result.

New week featuring Invest 95L coming up.

-Andrew92