Colorado State Abstract says likely less activity

[drezee]

Good Quick Read...

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/for ... ar2012.pdf

[CrazyC83]

Hopefully people don't read that and try to use that as an excuse not to be prepared though. Less activity does not mean no activity, and devastating storms can and do happen in low-number seasons.

[Kingarabian]

It's just that one storm man. Never underestimate these storms no matter what forecasts say.

[wxman57]

1992 was a "quiet year" (numbers-wise)...

[Ptarmigan]

1992 was a "quiet year" (numbers-wise)...

Cough! Andrew! Cough!

[HurricaneBill]

Other quiet years with destructive storms:

1957: Audrey
1960: Donna
1965: Betsy
1972: Agnes
1977: Anita
1983: Alicia
1991: Bob
1992: Andrew

Also remember the 1996 EPAC season. Although only 8 named storms formed, Mexico was impacted by 4 hurricanes (Alma, Boris, Fausto, Hernan)

[SFLcane]

1992 was a "quiet year" (numbers-wise)...

Care to share what areas your thinking might see a threat this season?

[hurricanehunter69]

The A and B storms are apparently the ones to watch out for in the "quiet" years.

[wxman57]

1992 was a "quiet year" (numbers-wise)...

Care to share what areas your thinking might see a threat this season?

Nope, not a clue at this time.

[wxman57]

The A and B storms are apparently the ones to watch out for in the "quiet" years.

That was certainly true in the "old days", when the A and B storms occurred in August or even September. These days, the A and B storms are often weak or subtropical storms in April, May or early June. Only 2 of those storms listed occurred before mid August (Audrey & Agnes), and 3 of then struck in September (Donna, Betsy and Anita).

[OuterBanker]

Yep, to me it look like they are going to say somewhere between 85 and 100 ntc. They also seem hesitant to even say it because of the press and general public's perception. No doubt that the press will downplay the numbers and express it as good news. The biggest problem is that it has become a numbers game, a most dangerous attitude. My biggest fear is that it will become an excuse for not preparing at all. I also see what could be a potential problem developing this year. So far the east Atlantic is unusually cool which means that the Cape Verde season will be greatly suppressed. This will mean fewer storms, but it will also mean fewer re-curvatures. My biggest fear is that we will have more close in developments. The ones that develop closer to the US and islands. The ones that blow up and develop quickly and strike land. And no one has prepared. I have no doubt that one of these seasons this will happen, I pray it's not his year. One more thing. If you have twenty-five hurricanes in a season and none hit land, is it really an active season? If you have only three hurricanes in a season, but all hit land is it really inactive? We really need to rethink the numbers game.

[Jagno]

I read this today that the weather service decided to battle complacency with some fairly strong reminders of the visual destruction that can be created from hurricane force winds. Sadly, seeing is believing for most people and if this gets one person to prepare then it's worth it.

http://now.msn.com/now/0331-weather-ser ... rning.aspx