Where will the first 2012 North Atlantic named system form?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Feb 27, 2012 8:50 pm

I think it's a good time to start this poll to warm this Talking Tropics forum towards the upcomming 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season. This poll will close (On March 31rst at 9:50 PM EDT) Remember that after this one is closed,another one opens the next day (April 1rst at 3:00 PM EDT) and that is the 2012 Storm2k numbers poll.

I will go with Western Caribbean.

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Mar 11, 2012 3:59 pm

I chose the GOM because I think without the ridges like we had last year that some fronts will still make it through and we could get a cut off low early in the season. Running neck to neck with that choice was Western Caribbean.

Hurricane Jed · #3 Postby **Hurricane Jed** » Tue Mar 13, 2012 11:17 pm

Western Atlantic on July 8th.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Mar 24, 2012 10:19 am

Only one week for this poll to close so those who still have not voted do so before next Saturday at 9:50 PM EDT.

#5 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Mar 24, 2012 1:46 pm

I think likely the Western Caribbean, which I voted for in this poll. But, I wouldn't be shocked to see development early in the Gulf of Mexico either.

#6 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sat Mar 24, 2012 2:19 pm

vbhoutex wrote:I chose the GOM because I think without the ridges like we had last year that some fronts will still make it through and we could get a cut off low early in the season. Running neck to neck with that choice was Western Caribbean.

With the ATL basin outside the GOM and Caribbean running cooler than normal I expect most of the activity, not all, to be more of the home grown variety. I know that is not the only factor, but along with the African drought, I am not expecting a lot out of the Cape Verde area this year.

#7 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Mar 24, 2012 2:29 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:I chose the GOM because I think without the ridges like we had last year that some fronts will still make it through and we could get a cut off low early in the season. Running neck to neck with that choice was Western Caribbean.

With the ATL basin outside the GOM and Caribbean running cooler than normal I expect most of the activity, not all, to be more of the home grown variety. I know that is not the only factor, but along with the African drought, I am not expecting a lot out of the Cape Verde area this year.

Astute analysis!

It still remains to be seen how strong this particular El Nino will be as the year progresses. However, I agree with you that upper level westerlies associated with El Nino patterns will put a damper on systems trying to develop in the tropical Atlantic this upcoming season. So, look for tropical cyclones to develop closer to home. It may turn out to be a slightly below average upcoming hurricane season this year, which is typical in El Nino years. But, even in El Nino seasons, it only takes just one major tropical cyclone to make it painfully memorable, cue Andrew 1992.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 3:19 pm

Poll closing is fast approaching on Saturday night at 9:50 PM EDT so those who still have not voted do so. A reminder that the Storm2k 2012 North Atlantic Hurricane season numbers poll will open on April 1rst at 3:00 PM EDT.

#9 Postby **NDG** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:21 pm

I voted for the GOM, shear has been running well below average & instability higher than average so far this spring.

Macrocane · #10 Postby **Macrocane** » Fri Mar 30, 2012 9:58 pm

I voted Western Caribbean, that's a very common place for early development: 2006 Alberto, 2008 Arthur, 2010 Alex, 2011 Arlene. Although if the first storm is subtropical it could form off the east coast of US.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Mar 31, 2012 8:52 pm

The poll is closed with Gulf of Mexico option ending with the most votes (10). You can still post comments about this topic.

Hurricane Jed · #12 Postby **Hurricane Jed** » Sat May 19, 2012 4:01 pm

Western Atlantic nailed it. wow

#13 Postby **NDG** » Sat May 19, 2012 4:33 pm

Hurricane Jed wrote:Western Atlantic nailed it. wow

You half nailed it

You should had left the date out

Hurricane Jed · #14 Postby **Hurricane Jed** » Sat May 19, 2012 7:15 pm

yeah I know

. I was only off by about a couple months lol