NOAA Will Issue Its 2012 Hurricane Season Outlook May 24

[wxman57]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/advisories ... tlook.html

10AM CDT

[Chacor]

The UK Met Office also issued its seasonal forecast today: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tro ... lantic2012

[cycloneye]

Near normal season for North Atlantic. 9-15 named storms,4-8 Hurricanes and 1-3 Major Hurricanes.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... eason.html

[HurrMark]

Not surprising...El Nino probably won't have too much of an impact until September...so we could tally up some relatively normal totals of storms, and if we are going to have a number of "homebrews", there won't be too much room for major development.

[ColdFusion]

Track record of NOAA May Predictions:

2005 Prediction: 12 to 15 tropical storms ACTUAL: 28
2006 Prediction: 13-16 ACTUAL: 10
2007 Prediction: 13-17 ACTUAL: 17
2008 Prediction: 12-16 ACTUAL: 16
2009 Prediction: 9-14 ACTUAL: 11
2010 Prediction: 14-23 ACTUAL: 19
2011 Prediction: 12-18 ACTUAL: 19


...data from wikipedia, so apologies if my data is off (i know you fact checkers are lurking out there)

[Evil Jeremy]

Its interesting how the prediction ranges have increased throughout the years. Its doubled.

[Cyclenall]

Its interesting how the prediction ranges have increased throughout the years. Its doubled.

And the final number was still out of the range in 2011! I like the exact number forecast much better as the range thing never made sense to me...especially with that range widening like that.

I came here looking for the Epac seasonal forecast because every year it was the same thing...below average for the Epac. There is a brief statement in that article that says a normal Epac season is expected while a below normal Cpac season is expected. Finally, the first time that I can remember where it was not below normal!! I don't know what the reasoning for the Cpac is.

and if we are going to have a number of "homebrews", there won't be too much room for major development.

It will be the opposite.

[JonathanBelles]

My thoughts on the hurricane forecast, 94L update, and possible severe weather for Florida

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... r-outlook/

And...a storm2k exclusive: due the (probably non-so-accurate) contest, here are my numbers: 14/5/2

[cycloneye]

Here is the more extended discussion of the NOAA outlook.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml