Pre-season/June activity as an indicator for the season

[senorpepr]

With Chris forming a few days ago and Debby approaching the horizon, there has been plenty of talk about early season activity as an indicator for the total season.

Here's some food for thought: If Debby forms in the next week (i.e. a June storm), it will be the first time in recorded history for the 4th named storm to occur in June. (The earliest 4th tropical storm was Dennis 2005, which formed July 5th.)

On 15 occasions has the 4th tropical storm formed in July.

Dennis 2005 -- July 5th
Cindy 1959 -- July 7th
#4 1916 -- July 11th
Claudette 1997 -- July 13th
#4 1886 -- July 14th
#4 1909 -- July 17th
Danny 2003 -- July 17th
#4 1887 -- July 20th
Dolly 2008 -- July 20th
Dorothy 1966 -- July 23th
#4 1933 -- July 25th
#4 1936 -- July 26th
Don 2011 -- July 27th
#4 1908 -- July 29th
Dean 1995 -- July 30th

Five of these seasons (1/3) had hyper-activity: 2005 (28), 1933 (20), 1887 (19), 2011 (19), and 1995 (19). On the other hand five seasons (1/3) has at- or below-normal activity: 1959 (11), 1909 (11), 1966 (11), 1908 (10), and 1997 (8).

The mean end-of-season totals for these 15 years: 15.4 named storms. With a standard deviation of a little over 5, this gives a window of between 10-20 named storms. Translation: it could be a below-average season, it could be an average season, or it could be a hyper-active season. We'll have to see how things shake out over the next couple months.

[jinftl]

Interesting that 2012 could have a distinction that perhaps no one would have expected a few months ago - the 4th named storm taking place almost 2 weeks ahead of the 4th named storm in the hyperactive 2005 season!

Now the rest of the season could be slow and uneventful....but if 2012 gets this claim to wear under it's belt, that makes it memorable no matter what July - November bring i think!