The left of Moisture in the Southern Gulf??

[Houstonia]

Nice rain and some slightly gusty winds in southwest Houston!!

Sorry for double post - I'm using Tapatalk, and not very well!!

[ROCK]

all in the mid levels right now....nothing at the surface. Looks 10 times better than 97L attm...still has plenty of daylight today to do something....

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT TWO:

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[jinftl]

You get the beneficial rain (and temps in the 80s) without a tropical storm or hurricane (i.e., debby from last week if she had followed the initial forecast west towards texas...while intensifying).

Once in a while Mother Nature gets it right!!!

Nice rain and some slightly gusty winds in southwest Houston!!

Sorry for double post - I'm using Tapatalk, and not very well!!

[crimi481]

Almost looks like a "Twin" (again) - small circulation to S.E. of Coastal system?
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[ROCK]

its trying to get down to the surface....vort has increased dramatically from this morning.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[ROCK]

also shear is dropping off quickly.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


needs to stay offshore and cook some and let that ULL move off to the west. If it can sustain itself without the aid of the ULL then we might have something.

[jinftl]

Ship reports last hour from western Gulf showing steady pressure readings and pretty light winds (outside of probably thunderstorms close to shore) out of the se, s, or sw. Doesn't appear low pressure forming at surface.

Link to ship reports:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... E&dist=250

[underthwx]

also shear is dropping off quickly.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


needs to stay offshore and cook some and let that ULL move off to the west. If it can sustain itself without the aid of the ULL then we might have something.

Rock...do you..or anyone... think the NHC will send a plane to investigate the system???...looks worthy of a pass or two to me on satellite...
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rgv20]

Rain is so close to my area, at least we are getting rain cooled breeze Currently 87F

[ROCK]

also shear is dropping off quickly.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


needs to stay offshore and cook some and let that ULL move off to the west. If it can sustain itself without the aid of the ULL then we might have something.

Rock...do you..or anyone... think the NHC will send a plane to investigate the system???...looks worthy of a pass or two to me on satellite...
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

no, there is nothing at the surface....that ULL to the west is aiding in lift for the rain we are seeing. The ULL will be moving to the west soon....and its back to 100F days...

[underthwx]

also shear is dropping off quickly.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


needs to stay offshore and cook some and let that ULL move off to the west. If it can sustain itself without the aid of the ULL then we might have something.

Rock...do you..or anyone... think the NHC will send a plane to investigate the system???...looks worthy of a pass or two to me on satellite...
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

no, there is nothing at the surface....that ULL to the west is aiding in lift for the rain we are seeing. The ULL will be moving to the west soon....and its back to 100F days...

thanks ROCK....hope yall got some raiin my brother....

[somethingfunny]

King GFS continues to see (has had for many, many runs) a short-lived, extremely weak closed low in the Bay of Campeche. I'd give it a very, very low chance of getting named based on the GFS depiction.

[Ptarmigan]

its trying to get down to the surface....vort has increased dramatically from this morning.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

I wonder how they can tell a surface low is forming through satellite? I know on the ground you can tell by barometer.

I know Humberto formed quickly and nobody saw it forming.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR AND
IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[ROCK]

its trying to get down to the surface....vort has increased dramatically from this morning.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

I wonder how they can tell a surface low is forming through satellite? I know on the ground you can tell by barometer.

I know Humberto formed quickly and nobody saw it forming.

Humberto was a mess with no LLC until about 36hrs before landfall. It was just a MLC for most of its lifetime. It was only until a trof pushed through and gave it the juice to tap the surface. I remember watching it pulse up and down for days as it worked its way up the coast. Then bam the LLC formed within radar range and it went RI....

As far as this mess, it has ran out of water. cloud tops are warming, poofing again like last night.

[KatDaddy]

Nice upper level flow this afternoon and evening but confusion with the surface convection. Glad this was not August.

[KatDaddy]

Yes that is true Rock. Not really a concern when I was up at 5:30 that morning and by 10AM the radar showed a real concern as Humberto began to wrap. By noon he was a TS and 5PM on the way to a hurricane. That was RI.