NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET all have Henri hanging around off the coast of the Carolinas after Day 3 ... EURO is more progressive along with the GFS. 00z ETA is depicting a slow inland runner with a heavy rainfall event for South Carolina (cyclonic turn in track).
The tropical models are in a cone from the BAMD running NE into Columbia, SC NEward into PHI and turning eastward, the GFDL takes Henri just offshore and then turns abruptly west back into North Carolina ... It's a chaotic mess ...
The obvious thing is the ridge that builds behind the wake left after Fabian's departure is leaving a weakly steered environment to cause that much confusion within the model guidance.
Some of the models are obviously trying to handle Henri as a baroclinic system after 3 days with a transitional to extratropical while other models are keeping Henri tropical through the period.
Short term looks ok ... but after three days ... uncertain, but it really appears that Henri just might be sticking around for a while.
SF
Uncertain future of Henri ...
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Stormsfury
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Uncertain future of Henri ...
Last edited by Stormsfury on Fri Sep 05, 2003 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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kickoff 12:30
Fury, I'm going to be sitting at the game in Columbia tomorrow 12:30pm.
Whats the chance of a washout ?
Whats the chance of a washout ?
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Stormsfury
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Re: kickoff 12:30
Pileus wrote:Fury, I'm going to be sitting at the game in Columbia tomorrow 12:30pm.
Whats the chance of a washout ?
Take your rain gear.
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Stormsfury
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Before the SSD site went down, latest visible satellite loops revealed a totally exposed center of circulation. However, new convection was initiating on the southeastern quad of the system. Also watching the NW area of convection for wrapping into the system.
Right now, Henri looks like another hybrid GOM storm. IMO, I'm not sold on Henri staying tropical after 72-96 hours due to potential baroclinic effects. I'm just not sure at this time.
SF
Right now, Henri looks like another hybrid GOM storm. IMO, I'm not sold on Henri staying tropical after 72-96 hours due to potential baroclinic effects. I'm just not sure at this time.
SF
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ColdFront77
This is the second day that the chances of Henri making an anti-cyclonic loop in the forecast.
The high pressure will obviously be the big player in the slow movemetn and possible "reversal of direction" as well as the frontal system that has become stationary across the southeast and may dissipate with time.
The entire southeastern coast line should monitor the progress of Henri.
The high pressure will obviously be the big player in the slow movemetn and possible "reversal of direction" as well as the frontal system that has become stationary across the southeast and may dissipate with time.
The entire southeastern coast line should monitor the progress of Henri.
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