Upcoming week - November 19-25

[Andrew92]

Evaluating last week

This might have been one of my bolder predictions, even if the storm I thought would occur was likely to not actually be tropical but a hybrid and last only a couple days. Too bad it just didn't pay off. The GFS and Euro both looked quite promising for this feature too. I have to say, looking at satellite pictures, the feature was there and followed the track I thought it might, but it just didn't develop further. It simply just didn't have the thunderstorms or organization that these two models were saying it might. Based on that, and the fact that I also correctly predicted no other storms for the week, would this be a completely blown forecast? I would say no. The theory was a good one looking at the models and what a couple other Pro Mets from other places said. Also as mentioned, the feature followed roughly the track I thought, also about the time I thought it would. If it had developed into a subtropical identity, this would have been a slam dunk for an A. But it didn't develop further... tough grade to say because I didn't fail and probably wasn't much below average either. I think I'll give myself a C- for this past week.

Well, since that didn’t develop, even if the models seemingly showed strong potential… the season probably really is dying down after all. Or is it? Let’s take a look.

Current situation and models

The Atlantic is very quiet this evening from a tropical standpoint. Nothing is threatening to develop anytime soon and the reliable GFS and Euro models agree that we should not be tracking anything for at least the first few days. But Thursday or Friday, a very impressive system may take shape over the western Atlantic, off the East Coast and north of the Bahamas. However, a very close analysis of this storm shows it will probably remain an extratropical entity only. There is just a very strong front-like feature associated with this potential system when looking at the models, and nothing tropical developing as a result of that system or from the tail end of the front. This system also would head northeast rather quickly, another hindrance towards becoming tropical in nature.

Other than that system, nothing looks imminent this week when looking at the models.

Recent history

Since 1960, these storms have developed and were not already active:

Martha in 1969
Nicole in 1998
Olga in 2001
Delta in 2005

You are reading that correctly. Only four storms have developed this upcoming week in the satellite era. Surprisingly, three of these storms became hurricanes, and the only one that didn’t, Delta, peaked at 70 mph. Nicole, Olga, and Delta all formed over the open subtropical Atlantic, while Martha developed in the far southwestern Caribbean. Nicole and Delta took normal out-to-sea tracks, while Olga took a very unusual and erratic track into the Bahamas. Even more unusual, Martha slithered into Panama, the only such occurrence in known history of a tropical system making landfall in that country – at least that I am aware of.

So what does this all tell us?

The odds are very slim on seeing any development this upcoming week from the tropics. If it were to happen, it would probably be from a system in more temperate latitudes. That strong storm that may come off the East Coast later this week would actually be a pretty decent candidate to pull it off. However, it looks like if the models are correct, it will remain extratropical and not shoot anything off from the tail end of its front. Simply put, the odds are one system developing this week every 13 years. The last time it happened was in 2005, only seven years ago. If we are to play that game, it shouldn’t be happening yet.

The Prediction

The strong non-tropical system later this week may prompt a code yellow from the National Hurricane Center if it is organized enough. However, is it really going to develop into anything tropical or subtropical? I predict no tropical or subtropical activity this upcoming week. Confidence is 85%.

-Andrew92

[Andrew92]

Time to evaluate.

Well, only one system on models looked to pose any remote threat of developing tropically this past week. Even that threat did not come anywhere near materializing: a non-tropical storm off the East Coast that never even prompted a code yellow from the National Hurricane Center. This was accurately predicted on my part, as well as predicting no other disturbances would develop tropically or subtropically. Therefore, my grade for this past week is an A.

Final 2012 weekly prediction coming up shortly.

-Andrew92