San Juan AFD about models and future of Isabel

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/AFDSJU

Interesting discussion about what the next few days will hold in terms of some impact from Isabel in the northern islands.So msbee keep watching the progress of Isabel there in ST Marteen.

[MWatkins]

For the most part...the UKMET is now the right outlier but even that model has come back to the left considerably in the last 2 runs.

The 12Z NOGAPS...which had a huge rightward bias with Fabian shows Isabel bowing back to the WSW like the 18Z track models did.

The 12Z GFS is in between the two solutions but is closer to NOGAPS than the UKIE...and the GFDL appears to have yet another miserable failure of a run at 12Z.

This system will NOT behave like Fabian. It will come much closer to the islands.

MW

[msbee]

yes, I know
you sorta feel like..
we escaped from Fabian, can we escape from Isabel too?
what are the odds?
my husband actually got our hurricane shutters out this morning..just in case

[cycloneye]

Good measure to do with plenty of time msbee from your husband to do as we dont know for sure what kind of impact Isabel may have in the northern islands by late friday and saturday which will be the period when she will come close to the longitud of the islands 62w but in what latitud (18n-19n-20n) it will be at that 62w point is the question.

[Renata]

It is the building ridge north of the hurricane which can either force the system westward or keep it stationary.

I was curious and now my curiosity has been satisfied.

[msbee]

let's hope that by the time she is at 62W, she is also at 20 North