I do appreciate models ... those computers can calculate much faster than we human beings ... however one missing factor in the equation often is the hurricane ... someone usually forgets to tell the hurricanes.
Despite the new model run, at 4:00 pm Isabel continues NW. The estimated center is now near 16N 39W up from 14.5N 37.7W at 11 am. This is a mighty fast speed at 317 degrees or NW.
The 11 am forecast anticipated that at 11 pm tonight it would be at 15.5N and 39W.
The only way to prove the accuracy of the forecast and models is with time. Let's wait until 11 pm and measure again. If this thing is moving so rapidly NW then I am extremely interested in knowing what is going to force it SW. These systems are so dynamic, one can never tell!
Despite the new model run, Isabel continues NW, now near 16N
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Stormsfury
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The building ridge left in the wake of departing Fabian ... that would generally end up forcing Isabel back westerly and some hints WSW...
The 12z GFS shows this ... and in fact, just about the model guidance shows this ... Isabel right now is advancing WNW to NW on the SWern edge of an elongated Azores High, however, as Fabian exits a new ridge builds down and also thrown into the mix is the potential future Juan to its east which may or may not have some role (Fujiwhara Effect) in keeping Isabel further west while the current invest 97L is drawn more northward.
GFS
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation
SF
The 12z GFS shows this ... and in fact, just about the model guidance shows this ... Isabel right now is advancing WNW to NW on the SWern edge of an elongated Azores High, however, as Fabian exits a new ridge builds down and also thrown into the mix is the potential future Juan to its east which may or may not have some role (Fujiwhara Effect) in keeping Isabel further west while the current invest 97L is drawn more northward.
GFS
http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation
SF
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Respectfully Disagree
Latest available imagery from meteosat at 4PM shows that the eye is starting to fill a bit...and the center is probably on the south side of that feature. And the northern portion of the eye is just touching the 16 degree line...
MW
MW
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Derek Ortt
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Stormsfury
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wx247
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I don't know if it has been a complete NW movement, but more of a WNW track. We shall see what happens with the future track is Isabel, but it looks nailbiting to say the least.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ColdFront77
wx247 wrote:I don't know if it has been a complete NW movement, but more of a WNW track. We shall see what happens with the future track is Isabel, but it looks nailbiting to say the least.
Renata wrote:Excellent description! You hit the nail on the head - no pun intended.
Good one, Renata. I liked that.
rob8303 wrote:So, Renata, not only is the gom in the clear but CONUS is too? Is that what you're implying. Great news!!!!
Rob, it isn't such a good idea to believe that a system that shows no signs of moving out to sea called a "fish storm."
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