What is the most reliable forecast model?

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charleston_hugo_veteran
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What is the most reliable forecast model?

#1 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:24 pm

Short term or long term?
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Constructionwx

#2 Postby Constructionwx » Sun Sep 07, 2003 8:33 pm

Here is the "batting avg" for the last month.

Looks like the ECMWF has the edge.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html

RP
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bayouwxman
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#3 Postby bayouwxman » Sun Sep 07, 2003 8:48 pm

Curious...what does "X" represent in that graphic? Is that a mean value?
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Constructionwx

#4 Postby Constructionwx » Sun Sep 07, 2003 8:51 pm

I believe it is refering to the MRF-X

RP
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JetMaxx

#5 Postby JetMaxx » Sun Sep 07, 2003 9:04 pm

For mature hurricanes such as Isabel, I've found the ECMWF performs very well....one reason I'm very concerned about the Southeast Coast (Georgia/ Florida).
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Constructionwx

#6 Postby Constructionwx » Mon Sep 08, 2003 6:39 am

CHV,

You may already have this bookmarked.

Make your own at PSC.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/grbcalc.html

The ECMWF usually starts coming out around 7ish ET.

I just noticed also that they have a very good Tropics page, click the link at top of that page.

RP
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ColdFront77

#7 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Sep 08, 2003 1:12 pm

What is a good model for one series of days, may not be as good as a model during another series of days... Correct?
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#8 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Sep 08, 2003 1:25 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:What is a good model for one series of days, may not be as good as a model during another series of days... Correct?


Correct.

Last year, my research showed AVN was best inside 72 hours.
EC was the best at 96 and 120 (tho the 120 was off in excess of 175 miles).
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Stormcenter
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None is more than the other, IMO

#9 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Sep 08, 2003 2:04 pm

None is more than the other.
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Re: None is more than the other, IMO

#10 Postby Scott_inVA » Mon Sep 08, 2003 2:20 pm

Stormcenter wrote:None is more than the other.


Well, EC is ALWAYS better than LBAR.
:wink:
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ColdFront77

#11 Postby ColdFront77 » Mon Sep 08, 2003 5:52 pm

That's what I thought.

As is always said (or should be said), computer forecast guidance, is just that, guidance. The more changes each run the more interesting the ultimate track may and can be.

Thank you for the responses.
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